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Champions League
Referee: M Mariani
Liverpool
U S S S S
3–2
Full-time
Ath Madrid
S T U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Ath Madrid
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,3
3,0
Scored
2,0
2,2
Conceded
1,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

2,60 xG 0,61
56% Possession 44%
20 Shots 10
6 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
7 Corners 6
1 Offside 2
7 Free kicks against 9
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Liverpool Ath Madrid
1–0 A. Robertson ⚽
M. Salah
4′
2–0 M. Salah ⚽
R. Gravenberch
6′
31′
🟨 Robin Le Normand
Jeremie Frimpong ℹ️
VAR: Penalty cancelled
36′
45′
⚽ M. Llorente 2–1
G. Raspadori
Half-time 2–1
49′
🟨 Clément Lenglet
52′
🔁 Koke
↦ G. Raspadori
A. Mac Allister 🔁
↦ C. Gakpo
58′
C. Bradley 🔁
↦ J. Frimpong
58′
H. Ekitike 🔁
↦ A. Isak
58′
61′
🔁 A. Sorloth
↦ A. Griezmann
61′
🔁 N. Molina
↦ C. Gallagher
Conor Bradley 🟨
70′
R. Ngumoha 🔁
↦ F. Wirtz
74′
77′
🔁 M. Pubill
↦ N. Gonzalez
81′
⚽ M. Llorente 2–2
M. Kerkez 🔁
↦ A. Robertson
86′
3–2 V. van Dijk ⚽
D. Szoboszlai
90′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Liverpool

4-2-3-1
1 Alisson G
30 J. Frimpong D
5 I. Konate D
4 V. van Dijk D
26 A. Robertson D
38 R. Gravenberch M
8 D. Szoboszlai M
11 M. Salah M
7 F. Wirtz M
18 C. Gakpo M
9 A. Isak F
Bench (11)
25 G. Mamardashvili
28 F. Woodman
2 J. Gomez
3 W. Endo
6 M. Kerkez
10 A. Mac Allister
12 C. Bradley
15 G. Leoni
22 H. Ekitike
73 R. Ngumoha
76 J. Danns

Coach: Arne Slot

Ath Madrid

4-4-2
13 J. Oblak G
14 M. Llorente D
24 R. Le Normand D
15 C. Lenglet D
21 J. Galan D
20 G. Simeone M
8 P. Barrios M
4 C. Gallagher M
23 N. Gonzalez M
22 G. Raspadori F
7 A. Griezmann F
Bench (11)
1 J. Musso
31 S. Esquivel
3 M. Ruggeri
6 Koke
9 A. Sorloth
12 C. Martin
16 N. Molina
17 D. Hancko
18 M. Pubill
28 T. Seidu
29 R. Belaid

Coach: Diego Simeone

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Mariani · 156 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,7 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.