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La Liga

Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero

Ath Madrid

S S T U U

2–0

Full-time

Villarreal

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Madrid Villarreal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,3

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,8

Scored

1,8

3,0

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

100%

33%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,0

2,7

Conceded

1,3

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+2,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,01 xG 1,03

61% Possession 39%

8 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Ath Madrid 16. · Villarreal 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	+4.8	12
2	Ath Bilbao	4	3	0	1	+2	+4.6	9
3	Getafe	4	3	0	1	+2	+0.7	9
4	Villarreal	3	2	1	0	+7	+3.7	7
5	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.7	7
6	Espanol	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.7	7
7	Alaves	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.6	7
8	Elche	4	1	3	0	+2	-1.7	6
9	Betis	4	1	2	1	+0	+1.1	5
10	Valencia	3	1	1	1	+2	+1.3	4
11	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	+1	+1.7	4
12	Sevilla	4	1	1	2	+0	-3.5	4
13	Osasuna	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.7	3
14	Celta	4	0	3	1	-2	-0.2	3
15	Oviedo	4	1	0	3	-6	-4.6	3
16	Ath Madrid	3	0	2	1	-1	+1.2	2
17	Sociedad	4	0	2	2	-2	-1.5	2
18	Mallorca	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.1	1
19	Levante	3	0	0	3	-4	-0.3	0
20	Girona	3	0	0	3	-9	-4.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Villarreal	2	2	0	0	+7	+3.7	6
2	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.4	6
3	Espanol	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.0	6
4	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+1	+4.1	6
5	Valencia	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.7	4
6	Elche	2	1	1	0	+2	-1.1	4
7	Alaves	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
8	Getafe	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
9	Osasuna	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
10	Betis	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.3	3
11	Oviedo	2	1	0	1	-2	-2.8	3
12	Celta	3	0	2	1	-2	-0.3	2
13	Ath Madrid	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
14	Vallecano	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
15	Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.9	1
16	Sevilla	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
17	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.0	1
18	Levante	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
19	Girona	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.7	7
2	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.4	6
3	Getafe	3	2	0	1	+0	+0.4	6
4	Sevilla	2	1	0	1	+1	-2.7	3
5	Vallecano	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.6	3
6	Ath Bilbao	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.5	3
7	Alaves	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.8	3
8	Elche	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.6	2
9	Betis	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.7	2
10	Espanol	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.7	1
11	Villarreal	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
12	Celta	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
13	Ath Madrid	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.0	1
14	Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.6	1
15	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.1	0
16	Valencia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
17	Osasuna	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.1	0
18	Levante	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.5	0
19	Oviedo	2	0	0	2	-4	-1.8	0
20	Girona	1	0	0	1	-5	-2.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.