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Champions League
Referee: I Pajac
Ath Bilbao
U T T S U
3–1
Full-time
Qarabag
S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Qarabag
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
17%
83%
Points per game
0,8
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,2
3,8
Scored
0,7
2,7
Conceded
1,5
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+1,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 2/8 matches
Win Ø 44%
0%
88%
Points per game
0,0
2,6
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
50%
63%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,5
3,4
Scored
0,5
2,5
Conceded
3,0
0,9
Goal diff per game
-2,5
+1,6
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

3,47 xG 0,52
60% Possession 40%
21 Shots 9
5 Shots on target 4
8 Blocked shots 4
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
8 Corners 3
1 Offside 0
14 Free kicks against 5
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ath Bilbao Qarabag
1′
⚽ Leandro Andrade 0–1
A. Berenguer 🔁
↦ I. Williams
38′
1–1 G. Guruzeta ⚽
M. Jauregizar
40′
Half-time 1–1
56′
🔁 M. Jankovic
↦ Pedro Bicalho
56′
🔁 E. Addai
↦ Leandro Andrade
J. Areso 🔁
↦ A. Gorosabel
65′
I. Ruiz de Galarreta 🔁
↦ A. Rego
65′
R. Navarro 🔁
↦ N. Williams
65′
67′
🔁 O. Kashchuk
↦ C. Duran
67′
🔁 T. Bayramov
↦ N. Akhundzade
2–1 R. Navarro ⚽
A. Berenguer
70′
79′
🔁 Dani Bolt
↦ Matheus Silva
M. Vesga 🔁
↦ O. Sancet
81′
3–1 G. Guruzeta ⚽
M. Jauregizar
88′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
1 U. Simon G
2 A. Gorosabel D
4 A. Paredes D
14 A. Laporte D
17 Y. Berchiche D
30 A. Rego M
18 M. Jauregizar M
9 I. Williams M
8 O. Sancet M
10 N. Williams M
11 G. Guruzeta F
Bench (12)
27 A. Padilla
3 D. Vivian
6 M. Vesga
7 A. Berenguer
12 J. Areso
15 I. Lekue
16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta
19 A. Boiro
20 U. Gomez
21 M. Sannadi
22 N. Serrano
23 R. Navarro

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Qarabag

4-2-3-1
99 M. Kochalski G
2 Matheus Silva D
13 B. Mustafazada D
81 K. Medina D
44 E. Cafarquliyev D
35 Pedro Bicalho M
20 Kady Borges M
17 C. Duran M
15 Leandro Andrade M
10 A. Zoubir
7 N. Akhundzade F
Bench (12)
1 S. Mahammadaliyev
97 F. Buntic
3 S. Mmaee
6 Chriso
8 M. Jankovic
11 E. Addai
18 Dani Bolt
21 O. Kashchuk
27 T. Bayramov
30 A. Huseynov
32 H. Cabrayilzada
55 B. Huseynov

Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

I Pajac · 13 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
2,6 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
20,4 / match
Average

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.