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Champions League
Referee: E Lambrechts
Benfica
U S S S U
2–3
Full-time
Qarabag
S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Qarabag
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,3
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,7
3,3
Scored
1,3
2,5
Conceded
0,3
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 4/6 matches
Win Ø 79%
75%
83%
Points per game
2,5
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
0%
67%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
1,3
3,3
Scored
1,3
2,5
Conceded
0,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,7
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,38 xG 1,52
53% Possession 47%
14 Shots 10
3 Shots on target 5
6 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
8 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
11 Free kicks against 6
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Benfica Qarabag
1–0 E. Barrenechea ⚽
G. Sudakov
6′
2–0 V. Pavlidis ⚽
16′
30′
⚽ Leandro Andrade 2–1
C. Duran
Half-time 2–2
48′
⚽ C. Duran 2–2
M. Jankovic
66′
🔁 E. Addai
↦ Leandro Andrade
F. Ivanovic 🔁
↦ F. Aursnes
70′
G. Prestianni 🔁
↦ A. Schjelderup
70′
77′
🔁 O. Kashchuk
↦ M. Jankovic
77′
🔁 T. Bayramov
↦ E. Cafarquliyev
L. Barreiro 🔁
↦ R. Rios
79′
H. Araujo 🔁
↦ V. Pavlidis
79′
86′
⚽ O. Kashchuk 2–3
A. Zoubir
90′
🔁 M. Qurbanly
↦ C. Duran
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Benfica

4-2-3-1
1 A. Trubin G
17 A. Dedic D
4 A. Silva D
30 N. Otamendi D
26 S. Dahl D
20 R. Rios M
5 E. Barrenechea M
8 F. Aursnes M
10 G. Sudakov M
21 A. Schjelderup M
14 V. Pavlidis F
Bench (12)
24 S. Soares
3 R. Obrador
9 F. Ivanovic
18 L. Barreiro
25 G. Prestianni
39 H. Araujo
44 T. Araujo
64 G. Oliveira
68 J. Veloso
71 L. Santos
84 J. Rego
86 D. Prioste

Coach: Jose Mourinho

Qarabag

4-2-3-1
99 M. Kochalski G
2 Matheus Silva D
13 B. Mustafazada D
81 K. Medina D
44 E. Cafarquliyev D
35 Pedro Bicalho M
8 M. Jankovic M
15 Leandro Andrade M
20 Kady Borges M
10 A. Zoubir
17 C. Duran F
Bench (11)
1 S. Mahammadaliyev
97 F. Buntic
3 S. Mmaee
6 Chriso
11 E. Addai
18 Dani Bolt
21 O. Kashchuk
22 M. Qurbanly
27 T. Bayramov
30 A. Huseynov
55 B. Huseynov

Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

E Lambrechts · 128 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,15 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.