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Champions League
Referee: R Obrenovic
Sp Lisbon
S S T U S
2–1
Full-time
Marseille
S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,2
2,5
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
3,2
3,7
Scored
2,2
2,8
Conceded
1,0
0,8
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+2,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 2/2 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,5
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 75%
100%
50%
Average goals
4,0
3,5
Scored
2,5
2,5
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+1,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,11 xG 0,54
53% Possession 47%
14 Shots 10
7 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 3
2 Goalkeeper saves 5
3 Corners 1
2 Offside 0
11 Free kicks against 16
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

12. Oct -22 Sp Lisbon – Marseille 0–2 4. Oct -22 Marseille – Sp Lisbon 4–1

Match report

Sp Lisbon Marseille
2′
🟨 Leonardo Balerdi
14′
⚽ I. Paixao 0–1
P. Aubameyang
39′
🟨 Emerson Palmieri
Half-time 0–1
46′
ℹ️ Emerson Palmieri
VAR: Penalty cancelled
46′
🔁 M. O'Riley
↦ A. Vermeeren
46′
🔁 M. Murillo
↦ M. Greenwood
47′
🟨 Emerson Palmieri
47′
🟥 Emerson Palmieri
G. Catamo 🔁
↦ G. Quenda
64′
F. Ioannidis 🔁
↦ J. Simoes
64′
67′
🔁 U. Garcia
↦ T. Weah
67′
🔁 A. Gomes
↦ I. Paixao
1–1 G. Catamo ⚽
P. Goncalves
69′
Geny Catamo ℹ️
VAR: Goal confirmed
71′
O. Diomande 🔁
↦ Z. Debast
80′
Alisson Santos 🔁
↦ I. Fresneda
80′
82′
🔁 R. Vaz
↦ P. Aubameyang
2–1 Alisson Santos ⚽
F. Ioannidis
86′
90′
🟨 Benjamin Pavard
Maximiliano Araújo 🟥
VAR: Red card cancelled
91′
Maximiliano Araújo 🟨
92′
Matheus Reis 🔁
↦ M. Araujo
93′
Pedro Gonçalves 🟨
95′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Sp Lisbon

4-2-3-1
1 R. Silva G
22 I. Fresneda D
6 Z. Debast D
25 G. Inacio D
20 M. Araujo D
42 M. Hjulmand M
52 J. Simoes M
7 G. Quenda M
17 Trincao M
8 P. Goncalves M
97 L. Suarez F
Bench (12)
12 J. Virginia
2 Matheus Reis
5 H. Morita
10 G. Catamo
13 G. Vagiannidis
14 G. Kochorashvili
26 O. Diomande
27 Alisson Santos
28 R. Ribeiro
72 E. Quaresma
89 F. Ioannidis
91 R. Mangas

Coach: Rui Borges

Marseille

3-4-2-1
1 G. Rulli G
28 B. Pavard D
5 L. Balerdi D
21 N. Aguerd D
22 T. Weah M
18 A. Vermeeren M
23 P. Hojbjerg M
33 Emerson M
10 M. Greenwood F
14 I. Paixao F
97 P. Aubameyang F
Bench (9)
12 J. De Lange
40 J. Van Neck
4 C. Egan-Riley
6 U. Garcia
8 A. Gomes
17 M. O'Riley
26 B. Nadir
34 R. Vaz
62 M. Murillo

Coach: Habib Beye

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

R Obrenovic · 32 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,9 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.