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Europa League
Referee: C Kavanagh
Fenerbahce
S S U S U
2–0
Full-time
AEK Larnaca
U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fenerbahce AEK Larnaca
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
50%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,5
2,8
Scored
1,8
1,8
Conceded
0,7
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,8
This season — Europa League · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 75%
67%
83%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
3,2
2,8
Scored
2,3
1,8
Conceded
0,8
1,0
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,8
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

68% Possession 32%
16 Shots 5
8 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 7
4 Corners 2
2 Offside 7
18 Free kicks against 12
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Fenerbahce AEK Larnaca
9′
🟨 Oier
12′
🟨 Imad Faraj
1–0 M. Batshuayi-Atunga ⚽
D. Rossi
26′
Bright Osayi-Samuel 🟨
39′
39′
🟨 Omri Altman
Half-time 1–0
Lincoln 🟨
47′
69′
🔁 V. Olatunji
↦ O. Altman
70′
🔁 G. Naoum
↦ Oier
İ. Kahveci 🔁
↦ E. Mor
72′
F. Kadıoğlu 🔁
↦ B. Osayi-Samuel
72′
E. Valencia 🔁
↦ Lincoln
72′
1–1 R. Mamas ⚽
own goal
79′
80′
🔁 Pere Pons
↦ Gus Ledes
81′
🔁 I. Trichkovski
↦ Rafael Lopes
S. Aziz 🔁
↦ D. Rossi
87′
A. Güler 🔁
↦ M. Batshuayi-Atunga
88′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Fenerbahce

4-1-3-2
1 A. Bayındır G
21 B. Osayi-Samuel D
2 Gustavo Henrique D
41 A. Szalai D
6 E. Alioski D
80 İ. Yüksek M
99 E. Mor M
27 Miguel Crespo M
18 Lincoln M
9 D. Rossi F
23 M. Batshuayi-Atunga F
Bench (9)
17 İ. Kahveci
7 F. Kadıoğlu
13 E. Valencia
4 S. Aziz
10 A. Güler
70 İ. Eğribayat
54 E. Çetin
26 M. Zajc
20 João Pedro

Coach: Jorge Jesus

AEK Larnaca

4-3-3
1 K. Pirić G
16 R. Rosales D
15 H. Miličević D
4 N. Tomović D
14 Ángel García D
6 Oier M
7 Gus Ledes M
66 R. Mamas M
11 I. Faraj F
12 Rafael Lopes F
51 O. Altman F
Bench (10)
19 V. Olatunji
29 G. Naoum
17 Pere Pons
10 I. Trichkovski
3 Mikel González
25 M. Gordić
38 I. Toumpas
30 H. Andreou
21 N. Englezou
24 K. Christoforou

Coach: José Luis Oltra

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Kavanagh · 171 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
21,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.