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Europa League
Referee: Ricardo De Burgos
Union Berlin
S S S U U
3–1
Full-time
Ajax
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Union Berlin Ajax
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,3
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
50%
67%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
1,8
3,2
Scored
1,3
2,8
Conceded
0,5
0,3
Goal diff per game
+0,8
+2,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 7/1 matches
Win Ø 29%
57%
0%
Points per game
1,9
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 0%
0%
0%
Both score Ø 0%
0%
0%
Average goals
0,9
0,0
Scored
0,6
0,0
Conceded
0,3
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,75 xG 1,88
27% Possession 73%
10 Shots 11
6 Shots on target 3
2 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
6 Corners 4
0 Offside 4
13 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 7
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

16. Feb -23 Ajax – Union Berlin 0–0

Match report

Union Berlin Ajax
17′
🟨 Calvin Bassey
Danilho Doekhi ℹ️
VAR: Penalty confirmed
18′
Sheraldo Becker 🟨
20′
20′
🟨 Davy Klaassen
1–0 R. Knoche ⚽
20′
Danilho Doekhi 🟨
28′
2–0 J. Juranović ⚽
J. Haberer
44′
Half-time 2–1
47′
⚽ M. Kudus 2–1
S. Bergwijn
3–1 D. Doekhi ⚽
J. Juranović
50′
64′
🔁 B. Brobbey
↦ D. Klaassen
J. Siebatcheu 🔁
↦ K. Behrens
65′
M. Thorsby 🔁
↦ A. Laïdouni
65′
80′
🔁 L. Lucca
↦ S. Bergwijn
84′
🔁 Francisco Conceição
↦ D. Rensch
J. Leweling 🔁
↦ S. Becker
85′
92′
🟨 Steven Berghuis
C. Trimmel 🔁
↦ J. Juranović
94′
N. Gießelmann 🔁
↦ J. Roussillon
94′
95′
🟨 Mohammed Kudus
96′
🟨 Dušan Tadić
96′
🟨 Edson Álvarez
97′
🟨 Edson Álvarez
97′
🟥 Edson Álvarez
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Union Berlin

3-5-2
1 F. Rønnow G
5 D. Doekhi D
31 R. Knoche D
4 Diogo Leite D
18 J. Juranović M
19 J. Haberer M
8 R. Khedira M
20 A. Laïdouni M
26 J. Roussillon M
17 K. Behrens F
27 S. Becker F
Bench (11)
45 J. Siebatcheu
2 M. Thorsby
40 J. Leweling
28 C. Trimmel
23 N. Gießelmann
16 T. Maciejewski
3 P. Jaeckel
37 L. Grill
11 S. Michel
36 A. Kemlein
39 Y. Stein

Coach: U. Fischer

Ajax

3-3-1-3
12 G. Rulli G
15 D. Rensch D
2 J. Timber D
3 C. Bassey D
23 S. Berghuis M
4 E. Álvarez M
8 K. Taylor M
6 D. Klaassen M
20 M. Kudus F
10 D. Tadić F
7 S. Bergwijn F
Bench (11)
9 B. Brobbey
18 L. Lucca
35 Francisco Conceição
26 Y. Regeer
28 K. Fitz-Jim
22 R. Pasveer
1 M. Stekelenburg
21 F. Grillitsch
19 J. Sánchez
5 O. Wijndal
57 J. Hato

Coach: J. Heitinga

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Ricardo De Burgos · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,2 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.