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Europa League
Referee: C Turpin
Man United
S U S U S
2–1
Full-time
Barcelona
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man United Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 75%
67%
83%
Points per game
2,3
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 59%
67%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
50%
33%
Average goals
3,0
2,3
Scored
2,2
1,8
Conceded
0,8
0,5
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+1,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 7/1 matches
Win Ø 36%
71%
0%
Points per game
2,3
1,0
Over 2.5 Ø 72%
43%
100%
Both score Ø 65%
29%
100%
Average goals
2,4
4,0
Scored
1,7
2,0
Conceded
0,7
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,0
+0,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,14 xG 1,19
42% Possession 58%
12 Shots 6
5 Shots on target 3
4 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 3
1 Corners 2
1 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

16. Feb -23 Barcelona – Man United 2–2

Match report

Man United Barcelona
18′
⚽ R. Lewandowski 0–1
Half-time 0–1
Antony 🔁
↦ W. Weghorst
46′
1–1 Fred ⚽
Bruno Fernandes
47′
Bruno Fernandes 🟨
60′
60′
🟨 Franck Kessié
A. Garnacho 🔁
↦ J. Sancho
67′
Diogo Dalot 🔁
↦ A. Wan-Bissaka
67′
70′
🔁 Ferran Torres
↦ Sergi Roberto
71′
🟨 Robert Lewandowski
2–1 Antony ⚽
73′
75′
🔁 Ansu Fati
↦ Raphinha
Alejandro Garnacho 🟨
78′
82′
🔁 Marcos Alonso
↦ R. Araujo
83′
🟨 Sergio Busquets
Casemiro 🟨
86′
S. McTominay 🔁
↦ M. Rashford
88′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Man United

4-2-3-1
1 David de Gea G
29 A. Wan-Bissaka D
19 R. Varane D
6 Lisandro Martínez D
23 L. Shaw D
17 Fred M
18 Casemiro M
8 Bruno Fernandes M
25 J. Sancho M
10 M. Rashford M
27 W. Weghorst F
Bench (12)
21 Antony
49 A. Garnacho
20 Diogo Dalot
39 S. McTominay
36 A. Elanga
73 K. Mainoo
15 M. Sabitzer
12 T. Malacia
5 H. Maguire
28 F. Pellistri
2 V. Lindelöf
22 T. Heaton

Coach: E. ten Hag

Barcelona

4-3-3
1 M. ter Stegen G
23 J. Koundé D
4 R. Araujo D
15 A. Christensen D
28 Alejandro Balde D
19 F. Kessie M
5 Sergio Busquets M
21 F. de Jong M
22 Raphinha F
9 R. Lewandowski F
20 Sergi Roberto F
Bench (9)
11 Ferran Torres
10 Ansu Fati
17 Marcos Alonso
32 Pablo Torre
24 Eric García
29 Marc Casadó
18 Jordi Alba
36 Arnau Tenas
26 Iñaki Peña

Coach: Xavi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

C Turpin · 184 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,3 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
23,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,20 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.