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Conference League
Referee: D Siebert
Anderlecht
U S S T U
2–1
Full-time
Ludogorets
U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Anderlecht Ludogorets
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
50%
33%
Points per game
1,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,5
Scored
1,3
1,2
Conceded
0,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,2
This season — Conference League · 11/1 matches
Win Ø 73%
45%
100%
Points per game
1,5
3,0
Over 2.5 Ø 14%
27%
0%
Both score Ø 9%
18%
0%
Average goals
1,7
1,0
Scored
1,1
1,0
Conceded
0,6
0,0
Goal diff per game
+0,5
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,97 xG 1,29
54% Possession 46%
20 Shots 14
8 Shots on target 1
7 Blocked shots 4
0 Goalkeeper saves 6
11 Corners 4
3 Offside 3
17 Free kicks against 17
4 Yellow cards 6
0 Red cards 1

Recent head-to-head meetings

16. Feb -23 Ludogorets – Anderlecht 1–0

Match report

Anderlecht Ludogorets
Lior Refaelov 🟨
-5′
12′
🔁 Pipa
↦ A. Witry
0–1 F. Russo ⚽
own goal
13′
Mario Stroeykens 🟨
16′
16′
🟨 Pedro Naressi
26′
🟨 Jakub Piotrowski
Half-time 0–1
46′
🔁 S. Delev
↦ B. Tekpetey
56′
🟨 Franco Russo
N. Angulo 🔁
↦ F. Amuzu
62′
1–1 Y. Verschaeren ⚽
I. Slimani
68′
71′
⚽ Thiago 1–2
K. Despodov
78′
🔁 D. Yankov
↦ Nonato
B. Raman 🔁
↦ I. Slimani
83′
M. Ashimeru 🔁
↦ M. Stroeykens
83′
84′
🟨 Pipa
L. Refaelov 🔁
↦ A. Diawara
90′
92′
🔁 M. Tissera
↦ Thiago
N. Sadiki 🔁
↦ M. NDiaye
93′
Kristian Arnstad 🟨
93′
97′
🟨 Matías Tissera
97′
🟨 Jakub Piotrowski
97′
🟥 Jakub Piotrowski
103′
🔁 Claude Gonçalves
↦ K. Despodov
L. Stassin 🔁
↦ K. Arnstad
105′
121′
❌ Pipa
penalty missed
2–2 L. Refaelov ⚽
122′
Killian Sardella 🟨
123′
123′
❌ D. Yankov
penalty missed
3–2 J. Vertonghen ⚽
124′
125′
❌ Pedro Naressi
penalty missed
4–2 Y. Verschaeren ⚽
126′
Full-time 4–2

Line-ups

Anderlecht

4-3-3
16 B. Verbruggen G
61 K. Arnstad
54 K. Sardella D
14 J. Vertonghen D
5 M. N'Diaye D
36 A. Dreyer M
21 A. Diawara M
10 Y. Verschaeren M
29 M. Stroeykens F
13 I. Slimani F
7 F. Amuzu F
Bench (12)
32 N. Angulo
9 B. Raman
18 M. Ashimeru
11 L. Refaelov
27 N. Sadiki
76 L. Stassin
25 A. Trébel
24 I. Abdulrazak
23 H. Bellman
30 H. Van Crombrugge
47 L. Lissens
71 T. Leoni

Coach: B. Riemer

Ludogorets

4-3-3
1 S. Padt G
16 A. Witry D
22 F. Russo D
32 I. Plastun D
3 A. Nedyalkov D
30 Pedro Naressi M
6 J. Piotrowski M
20 Nonato M
11 K. Despodov F
9 Thiago F
37 B. Tekpetey F
Bench (10)
2 Pipa
90 S. Delev
64 D. Yankov
10 M. Tissera
8 Claude Gonçalves
67 D. Hristov
5 G. Terziev
14 D. Gruper
17 Jorginho
12 S. Sluga

Coach: A. Šimundža

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

D Siebert · 158 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.