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Premier League
Referee: Martin Atkinson
West Ham
T S T T T
3–2
Full-time
Chelsea
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

West Ham Chelsea
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
17%
67%
Points per game
0,5
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,7
3,2
Scored
0,8
2,0
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
-1,0
+0,8
This season — Premier League · 31/31 matches
Win Ø 38%
23%
52%
Points per game
0,9
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 57%
48%
65%
Both score Ø 55%
48%
61%
Average goals
2,9
3,1
Scored
1,1
1,8
Conceded
1,7
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

28% Possession 72%
10 Shots 17
4 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 2
4 Goalkeeper saves 1
2 Corners 3
2 Offside 2
10 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match West Ham 17. · Chelsea 4. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Liverpool 31 28 2 1 +49 86
2 Man City 31 20 3 8 +44 63
3 Leicester 32 16 7 9 +29 55
4 Chelsea 31 16 6 9 +14 54
5 Man United 32 14 10 8 +20 52
6 Wolves 32 13 13 6 +11 52
7 Arsenal 32 11 13 8 +6 46
8 Tottenham 31 12 9 10 +9 45
9 Burnley 32 13 6 13 -9 45
10 Sheffield United 31 11 11 9 -1 44
11 Everton 32 12 8 12 -7 44
12 Crystal Palace 32 11 9 12 -9 42
13 Newcastle 32 11 9 12 -10 42
14 Southampton 32 12 4 16 -14 40
15 Brighton 32 7 12 13 -10 33
16 Watford 32 6 10 16 -20 28
17 West Ham 31 7 6 18 -19 27
18 Aston Villa 32 7 6 19 -24 27
19 Bournemouth 32 7 6 19 -24 27
20 Norwich 32 5 6 21 -35 21

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

West Ham Chelsea
42′
⚽ Willian 0–1
Half-time 1–1
1–1 T. Souček ⚽
J. Bowen
47′
2–1 M. Antonio ⚽
J. Bowen
51′
53′
🔁 M. Mount
↦ M. Kovačić
63′
🔁 R. Loftus-Cheek
↦ R. Barkley
63′
🔁 O. Giroud
↦ T. Abraham
Manuel Lanzini 🟨
65′
J. Wilshere 🔁
↦ M. Lanzini
68′
Declan Rice 🟨
70′
72′
⚽ Willian 2–2
A. Yarmolenko 🔁
↦ J. Bowen
78′
82′
🟨 Willian
3–2 A. Yarmolenko ⚽
M. Antonio
89′
F. Balbuena 🔁
↦ Pablo Fornals
93′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

West Ham

4-2-3-1
1 Ł. Fabiański G
21 A. Ogbonna D
3 A. Cresswell D
24 R. Fredericks D
23 I. Diop D
30 M. Antonio F
10 M. Lanzini M
28 T. Souček M
41 D. Rice M
18 Pablo Fornals M
17 J. Bowen M
Bench (9)
19 J. Wilshere
7 A. Yarmolenko
4 F. Balbuena
53 B. Johnson
32 Xande Silva
8 Felipe Anderson
35 D. Randolph
39 A. Lewis
27 A. Ajeti

Coach: D. Moyes

Chelsea

4-3-3
1 Kepa G
28 Azpilicueta D
3 Marcos Alonso D
2 A. Rüdiger D
4 A. Christensen D
8 R. Barkley M
17 M. Kovačić M
7 N. Kanté M
22 C. Pulisic F
10 Willian F
9 T. Abraham F
Bench (9)
19 M. Mount
12 R. Loftus-Cheek
18 O. Giroud
5 Jorginho
24 R. James
15 K. Zouma
47 B. Gilmour
13 W. Caballero
20 C. Hudson-Odoi

Coach: F. Lampard

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
5,48
U
4,27
B
1,59
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
O2,5 ✓
1,72
U2,5
2,14
O3,5 ✓
–
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
BLS nei
–

Referee

Martin Atkinson · 149 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
17,5 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.