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Bundesliga

Referee: F Ouschan

Salzburg

S U U S S

5–2

Full-time

Sturm Graz

S T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Salzburg Sturm Graz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,3

3,7

Scored

3,3

0,8

Conceded

1,0

2,8

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-2,0

This season — Bundesliga · 30/30 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

80%

57%

Both score Ø 57%

63%

50%

Average goals

4,5

3,1

Scored

3,4

1,4

Conceded

1,1

1,7

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-0,3

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

58% Possession 42%

21 Shots 8

10 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

12 Corners 3

3 Offside 0

21 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Salzburg 1. · Sturm Graz 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Salzburg	30	20	8	2	+70	68
2	LASK	30	20	4	6	+35	64
3	SK Rapid	30	16	7	7	+21	55
4	Wolfsberger AC	30	14	8	8	+24	50
5	Austria Vienna	31	11	11	9	+1	44
6	Altach	31	10	8	13	-6	38
7	Hartberg	30	11	5	14	-25	38
8	Sturm Graz	30	10	5	15	-8	35
9	St. Polten	31	7	10	14	-28	31
10	Mattersburg	31	8	6	17	-24	30
11	Admira	31	6	9	16	-28	27
12	Tirol	31	6	7	18	-32	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Salzburg	15	12	2	1	+38	38
2	LASK	15	7	3	5	+13	24
3	Wolfsberger AC	15	6	5	4	+12	23
4	SK Rapid	15	6	4	5	+5	22
5	Austria Vienna	15	6	4	5	+0	22
6	Altach	16	5	5	6	+0	20
7	Hartberg	15	5	3	7	-10	18
8	Sturm Graz	15	4	2	9	-7	14
9	Mattersburg	16	3	3	10	-14	12
10	St. Polten	15	2	6	7	-20	12
11	Admira	16	2	4	10	-18	10
12	Tirol	15	2	3	10	-22	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	LASK	15	13	1	1	+22	40
2	SK Rapid	15	10	3	2	+16	33
3	Salzburg	15	8	6	1	+32	30
4	Wolfsberger AC	15	8	3	4	+12	27
5	Austria Vienna	16	5	7	4	+1	22
6	Sturm Graz	15	6	3	6	-1	21
7	Hartberg	15	6	2	7	-15	20
8	St. Polten	16	5	4	7	-8	19
9	Altach	15	5	3	7	-6	18
10	Mattersburg	15	5	3	7	-10	18
11	Admira	15	4	5	6	-10	17
12	Tirol	16	4	4	8	-10	16

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.