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Serie A

Referee: M Mariani

Spal

T T S T T

2–2

Full-time

Milan

S U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spal Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

This season — Serie A · 28/28 matches

Win Ø 31%

18%

43%

Points per game

0,6

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

43%

Both score Ø 52%

54%

50%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

29% Possession 71%

4 Shots 25

3 Shots on target 12

0 Blocked shots 16

8 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 17

1 Offside 1

9 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 0

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Spal 19. · Milan 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	29	23	3	3	+34	72
2	Lazio	29	21	5	3	+38	68
3	Inter	29	19	7	3	+33	64
4	Atalanta	28	17	6	5	+41	57
5	Roma	28	14	6	8	+15	48
6	Napoli	28	13	6	9	+9	45
7	Milan	28	12	6	10	-1	42
8	Cagliari	29	10	9	10	+3	39
9	Parma	28	11	6	11	+3	39
10	Verona	28	10	9	9	+2	39
11	Bologna	29	10	8	11	-5	38
12	Sassuolo	28	9	7	12	-1	34
13	Fiorentina	28	7	10	11	-5	31
14	Torino	29	9	4	16	-19	31
15	Udinese	28	7	7	14	-18	28
16	Sampdoria	28	7	5	16	-19	26
17	Genoa	29	6	8	15	-21	26
18	Lecce	28	6	7	15	-29	25
19	Spal	28	5	3	20	-27	18
20	Brescia	29	4	6	19	-33	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	14	13	1	0	+25	40
2	Lazio	15	12	3	0	+30	39
3	Inter	15	9	5	1	+20	32
4	Atalanta	14	8	2	4	+18	26
5	Roma	14	7	3	4	+8	24
6	Verona	14	7	3	4	+4	24
7	Sassuolo	14	6	2	6	+6	20
8	Cagliari	14	6	2	6	+4	20
9	Napoli	14	6	2	6	+1	20
10	Milan	14	5	5	4	+0	20
11	Parma	14	6	1	7	+4	19
12	Udinese	14	5	4	5	-3	19
13	Bologna	15	4	6	5	-4	18
14	Torino	15	5	3	7	-11	18
15	Sampdoria	15	4	4	7	-7	16
16	Fiorentina	14	3	6	5	-4	15
17	Genoa	14	4	1	9	-9	13
18	Lecce	14	2	5	7	-10	11
19	Spal	13	2	2	9	-10	8
20	Brescia	14	1	4	9	-12	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	14	10	2	2	+13	32
2	Juventus	15	10	2	3	+9	32
3	Atalanta	14	9	4	1	+23	31
4	Lazio	14	9	2	3	+8	29
5	Napoli	14	7	4	3	+8	25
6	Roma	14	7	3	4	+7	24
7	Milan	14	7	1	6	-1	22
8	Bologna	14	6	2	6	-1	20
9	Parma	14	5	5	4	-1	20
10	Cagliari	15	4	7	4	-1	19
11	Fiorentina	14	4	4	6	-1	16
12	Verona	14	3	6	5	-2	15
13	Sassuolo	14	3	5	6	-7	14
14	Lecce	14	4	2	8	-19	14
15	Torino	14	4	1	9	-8	13
16	Genoa	15	2	7	6	-12	13
17	Brescia	15	3	2	10	-21	11
18	Sampdoria	13	3	1	9	-12	10
19	Spal	15	3	1	11	-17	10
20	Udinese	14	2	3	9	-15	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.