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Europa League
Referee: M Jug
Ath Bilbao
U T S T U
3–1
Full-time
Plzen
U S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ath Bilbao Plzen
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
2,7
2,5
Scored
1,2
1,5
Conceded
1,5
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,3
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 7/11 matches
Win Ø 68%
71%
64%
Points per game
2,3
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 49%
43%
55%
Both score Ø 49%
43%
55%
Average goals
2,6
2,5
Scored
1,7
1,5
Conceded
0,9
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

2,20 xG 0,58
58% Possession 42%
19 Shots 8
8 Shots on target 2
7 Blocked shots 5
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
7 Corners 1
1 Offside 3
11 Free kicks against 9
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Ath Bilbao Plzen
21′
🟨 Prince Kwabena Adu
Daniel Vivian ℹ️
VAR: Goal cancelled
23′
1–0 Nico Williams ⚽
I. Williams
25′
Álex Berenguer 🟨
31′
Half-time 1–0
62′
🔁 J. Panoš
↦ P. Adu
63′
🟨 Sampson Dweh
2–0 Yeray ⚽
Álex Berenguer
64′
Oihan Sancet 🔁
↦ Álex Berenguer
66′
Mikel Vesga 🔁
↦ Mikel Jauregizar
70′
Álvaro Djaló 🔁
↦ I. Williams
70′
71′
⚽ M. Havel 2–1
L. Červ
78′
🔁 D. Vašulín
↦ L. Kalvach
Álvaro Djaló 🟨
84′
88′
ℹ️ Daniel Vasulin
VAR: Card upgrade
89′
🟥 Daniel Vasulin
Javi Martón 🔁
↦ Gorka Guruzeta
89′
Unai Gómez 🔁
↦ Nico Williams
89′
3–1 Javi Martón ⚽
Oihan Sancet
95′
Full-time 3–1

Line-ups

Ath Bilbao

4-2-3-1
13 Julen Agirrezabala G
18 De Marcos D
3 Dani Vivian D
5 Yeray D
17 Yuri D
24 Beñat Prados M
23 Mikel Jauregizar M
9 I. Williams M
7 Álex Berenguer M
10 Nico Williams M
12 Gorka Guruzeta F
Bench (12)
8 Oihan Sancet
6 Mikel Vesga
11 Álvaro Djaló
19 Javi Martón
20 Unai Gómez
1 Unai Simón
14 Unai Núñez
15 Lekue
32 Adama Boiro
2 Andoni Gorosabel
28 Peio Canales
4 Aitor Paredes

Coach: Ernesto Valverde

Plzen

3-5-2
16 M. Jedlička G
40 S. Dweh D
3 S. Marković D
21 V. Jemelka D
24 M. Havel M
6 L. Červ M
23 L. Kalvach M
31 P. Šulc M
22 Cadu M
11 M. Vydra F
80 P. Adu F
Bench (9)
20 J. Panoš
51 D. Vašulín
30 V. Baier
32 M. Valenta
13 M. Tvrdoň
12 A. Sojka
10 J. Kopic
2 L. Hejda
5 J. Paluska

Coach: M. Koubek

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

M Jug · 25 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,2 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,4 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,33 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.