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Europa League
Referee: Gil Manzano
Ajax
S S T S T
2–1
Full-time
Galatasaray
S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Ajax Galatasaray
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
17%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
17%
83%
Average goals
2,0
3,5
Scored
1,3
2,3
Conceded
0,7
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,7
+1,2
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Europa League · 13/7 matches
Win Ø 53%
62%
43%
Points per game
1,9
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 70%
54%
86%
Both score Ø 66%
31%
100%
Average goals
2,8
4,6
Scored
2,0
2,6
Conceded
0,8
2,0
Goal diff per game
+1,2
+0,6
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,44 xG 2,71
39% Possession 61%
12 Shots 28
6 Shots on target 9
1 Blocked shots 7
8 Goalkeeper saves 4
2 Corners 10
2 Offside 3
16 Free kicks against 8
1 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Ajax Galatasaray
C. Akpom 🔁
↦ M. Godts
12′
1–0 B. Traoré ⚽
23′
38′
🟨 Victor Osimhen
Half-time 1–0
53′
🟨 Lucas Torreira
2–0 K. Fitz-Jim ⚽
B. Traoré
58′
61′
🔁 E. Jelert
↦ Y. Akgün
61′
🔁 M. Batshuayi
↦ B. Kutlu
69′
🔁 Y. Demir
↦ D. Mertens
Bertrand Traoré 🟨
72′
W. Weghorst 🔁
↦ B. Brobbey
73′
S. Berghuis 🔁
↦ B. Traoré
73′
J. Mokio 🔁
↦ K. Fitz-Jim
77′
D. Rugani 🔁
↦ J. Henderson
77′
79′
🟨 Davinson Sánchez
89′
🔁 E. Akman
↦ B. Yılmaz
89′
🔁 V. Nelsson
↦ D. Sánchez
94′
⚽ V. Osimhen 2–1
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3
22 R. Pasveer G
3 A. Gaaei D
37 J. Šutalo D
15 Y. Baas D
4 J. Hato D
28 K. Fitz-Jim M
6 J. Henderson M
8 K. Taylor M
20 B. Traoré F
9 B. Brobbey F
11 M. Godts F
Bench (12)
10 C. Akpom
25 W. Weghorst
23 S. Berghuis
31 J. Mokio
24 D. Rugani
13 A. Kaplan
38 K. Hlynsson
47 G. Alders
12 J. Gorter
33 B. Tahirović
40 D. Ramaj
29 C. Rasmussen

Coach: F. Farioli

Galatasaray

4-2-3-1
1 F. Muslera G
23 K. Ayhan D
6 D. Sánchez D
42 A. Bardakcı D
18 B. Kutlu D
34 L. Torreira M
20 Gabriel Sara M
11 Y. Akgün M
10 D. Mertens M
53 B. Yılmaz M
45 V. Osimhen F
Bench (10)
24 E. Jelert
44 M. Batshuayi
30 Y. Demir
83 E. Akman
25 V. Nelsson
90 M. Baltacı
38 A. Ordu
19 G. Güvenç
65 K. Subaşı
67 B. Luş

Coach: O. Buruk

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

Gil Manzano · 26 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,4 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.