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Conference League
Referee: A Aghayev
AEK Larnaca
U U U S U
1–2
Full-time
Crystal Palace
S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

AEK Larnaca Crystal Palace
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
33%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
0%
33%
Both score Ø 25%
17%
33%
Average goals
0,7
1,7
Scored
0,5
1,2
Conceded
0,2
0,5
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Conference League · 7/11 matches
Win Ø 44%
43%
45%
Points per game
1,9
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
14%
36%
Both score Ø 25%
14%
36%
Average goals
1,1
2,0
Scored
1,0
1,4
Conceded
0,1
0,6
Goal diff per game
+0,9
+0,7
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,28 xG 3,18
30% Possession 70%
6 Shots 29
3 Shots on target 7
1 Blocked shots 7
4 Goalkeeper saves 2
1 Corners 10
2 Offside 3
7 Free kicks against 21
3 Yellow cards 3
2 Red cards 0

Recent head-to-head meetings

12. Mar -26 Crystal Palace – AEK Larnaca 0–0 23. Oct -25 Crystal Palace – AEK Larnaca 0–1

Match report

AEK Larnaca Crystal Palace
13′
⚽ I. Sarr 0–1
27′
🟨 Chris Richards
Enric Saborit 🟨
33′
Half-time 0–1
53′
🟨 Maxence Lacroix
60′
🔁 D. Munoz
↦ B. Johnson
1–1 E. Saborit ⚽
M. Rohden
63′
Enric Saborit 🟨
73′
Enric Saborit 🟥
73′
E. Cabrera 🔁
↦ R. Bajic
76′
76′
🔁 J. Lerma
↦ C. Richards
76′
🔁 Y. Pino
↦ E. Guessand
V. Roberge 🔁
↦ D. Ivanovic
79′
Y. Gurfinkel 🔁
↦ A. Garcia
79′
83′
🔁 J. Mateta
↦ J. Canvot
84′
🟨 Jørgen Strand Larsen
C. Kyriakou 🔁
↦ M. Rohden
89′
99′
⚽ I. Sarr 1–2
D. Kamada
R. Mudrazija 🔁
↦ P. Pons
106′
W. Rubio 🔁
↦
112′
119′
🔁 W. Hughes
↦ A. Wharton
Valentin Roberge 🟨
121′
Petros Ioannou ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
123′
Petros Ioannou 🟥
124′
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

AEK Larnaca

5-4-1
1 Z. Alomerovic G
2 P. Ioannou D
22 G. Ekpolo D
15 H. Milicevic D
4 E. Saborit D
14 A. Garcia D
8 M. Rohden M
7 Ledes Gustavo M
17 P. Pons M
9 D. Ivanovic M
11 R. Bajic F
Bench (10)
51 A. Paraskevas
99 D. Demetriou
27 V. Roberge
25 C. Kyriakou
32 R. Mudrazija
10 W. Rubio
30 E. Cabrera
13 Y. Gurfinkel
36 C. Loukaidis
41 Mathias Gonzalez

Coach: Imanol Idiakez

Crystal Palace

3-4-3
44 W. Benitez G
26 C. Richards D
5 M. Lacroix D
23 J. Canvot D
11 B. Johnson M
20 A. Wharton M
18 D. Kamada M
3 T. Mitchell M
7 I. Sarr F
22 J. S. Larsen F
29 E. Guessand F
Bench (12)
31 R. Matthews
53 J. Izquierdo
17 N. Clyne
19 W. Hughes
24 B. Sosa
8 J. Lerma
14 J. Mateta
2 D. Munoz
10 Y. Pino
55 J. Devenny
34 C. Riad
59 R. Cardines

Coach: Oliver Glasner

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.