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Premier League

Referee: David Coote

Liverpool

U S T S S

1–1

Full-time

Burnley

T S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Liverpool Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 65%

88%

41%

Points per game

2,7

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

68%

50%

Both score Ø 43%

50%

35%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

2,2

1,1

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,4

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

70% Possession 30%

23 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 8

12 Corners 6

2 Offside 3

7 Free kicks against 4

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Liverpool 1. · Burnley 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	34	30	2	2	+49	92
2	Man City	34	22	3	9	+52	69
3	Chelsea	34	18	6	10	+17	60
4	Leicester	34	17	8	9	+32	59
5	Man United	34	16	10	8	+26	58
6	Wolves	34	13	13	8	+8	52
7	Sheffield United	34	13	12	9	+2	51
8	Arsenal	34	12	14	8	+8	50
9	Tottenham	34	13	10	11	+8	49
10	Burnley	34	14	7	13	-8	49
11	Everton	34	12	9	13	-8	45
12	Southampton	34	13	5	16	-13	44
13	Newcastle	35	11	10	14	-16	43
14	Crystal Palace	34	11	9	14	-13	42
15	Brighton	34	8	12	14	-11	36
16	West Ham	35	9	7	19	-15	34
17	Watford	35	8	10	17	-21	34
18	Bournemouth	34	7	7	20	-27	28
19	Aston Villa	34	7	6	21	-29	27
20	Norwich	35	5	6	24	-41	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	17	0	0	+34	51
2	Man City	17	13	2	2	+38	41
3	Man United	17	10	5	2	+23	35
4	Leicester	17	10	4	3	+18	34
5	Tottenham	17	10	3	4	+15	33
6	Chelsea	17	9	3	5	+11	30
7	Arsenal	17	8	6	3	+10	30
8	Sheffield United	17	9	3	5	+7	30
9	Everton	17	8	6	3	+5	30
10	Burnley	17	8	3	6	+2	27
11	Newcastle	17	6	8	3	+3	26
12	Wolves	17	6	7	4	+3	25
13	Watford	18	6	6	6	-1	24
14	Crystal Palace	17	6	4	7	-3	22
15	Brighton	17	5	6	6	-2	21
16	West Ham	17	5	3	9	-5	18
17	Bournemouth	17	4	6	7	-9	18
18	Aston Villa	17	5	3	9	-11	18
19	Southampton	17	5	2	10	-16	17
20	Norwich	18	4	3	11	-16	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	17	13	2	2	+15	41
2	Chelsea	17	9	3	5	+6	30
3	Man City	17	9	1	7	+14	28
4	Wolves	17	7	6	4	+5	27
5	Southampton	17	8	3	6	+3	27
6	Leicester	17	7	4	6	+14	25
7	Man United	17	6	5	6	+3	23
8	Burnley	17	6	4	7	-10	22
9	Sheffield United	17	4	9	4	-5	21
10	Arsenal	17	4	8	5	-2	20
11	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-10	20
12	Newcastle	18	5	2	11	-19	17
13	Tottenham	17	3	7	7	-7	16
14	West Ham	18	4	4	10	-10	16
15	Brighton	17	3	6	8	-9	15
16	Everton	17	4	3	10	-13	15
17	Bournemouth	17	3	1	13	-18	10
18	Watford	17	2	4	11	-20	10
19	Aston Villa	17	2	3	12	-18	9
20	Norwich	17	1	3	13	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.