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Championship

Referee: Tony Harrington

Leeds

U T U U T

2–1

Full-time

Bolton

S T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leeds Bolton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

1,7

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,3

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

This season — Championship · 33/34 matches

Win Ø 18%

24%

12%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 53%

52%

53%

Average goals

2,1

2,6

Scored

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

53% Possession 47%

13 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

12 Corners 9

2 Offside 5

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Leeds 18. · Bolton 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	35	19	11	5	+27	68
2	Middlesbrough	34	20	7	7	+27	67
3	Hull	32	19	6	7	+30	63
4	Brighton	33	17	11	5	+15	62
5	Cardiff	35	14	13	8	+9	55
6	Derby	33	14	12	7	+13	54
7	Birmingham	34	15	9	10	+8	54
8	Sheffield Weds	32	14	11	7	+15	53
9	Ipswich	33	14	9	10	+1	51
10	Preston	34	12	12	10	+1	48
11	QPR	34	10	14	10	+1	44
12	Reading	33	11	10	12	+2	43
13	Brentford	34	12	7	15	-6	43
14	Wolves	35	11	10	14	-6	43
15	Nott'm Forest	33	10	12	11	+2	42
16	Blackburn	34	9	13	12	+1	40
17	Huddersfield	34	10	9	15	-2	39
18	Leeds	33	8	14	11	-9	38
19	Bristol City	35	9	10	16	-24	37
20	Fulham	34	8	12	14	-5	36
21	Milton Keynes Dons	34	8	8	18	-20	32
22	Rotherham	34	8	5	21	-21	29
23	Bolton	34	4	13	17	-24	25
24	Charlton	34	5	10	19	-35	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	18	13	3	2	+22	42
2	Middlesbrough	17	12	3	2	+20	39
3	Brighton	17	12	2	3	+12	38
4	Hull	14	11	3	0	+26	36
5	Sheffield Weds	16	10	5	1	+19	35
6	Cardiff	17	9	7	1	+12	34
7	Derby	17	8	6	3	+12	30
8	Birmingham	17	9	2	6	+3	29
9	Reading	17	7	7	3	+8	28
10	Preston	17	7	6	4	+2	27
11	QPR	17	6	8	3	+6	26
12	Blackburn	17	6	7	4	+6	25
13	Nott'm Forest	17	6	6	5	+5	24
14	Ipswich	16	6	6	4	+3	24
15	Brentford	17	7	3	7	-1	24
16	Huddersfield	17	6	4	7	+5	22
17	Bolton	17	4	9	4	+0	21
18	Wolves	17	5	6	6	-2	21
19	Rotherham	17	6	3	8	-4	21
20	Milton Keynes Dons	17	6	3	8	-8	21
21	Fulham	17	5	5	7	+1	20
22	Leeds	17	4	7	6	-4	19
23	Bristol City	18	4	6	8	-12	18
24	Charlton	17	3	7	7	-9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Middlesbrough	17	8	4	5	+7	28
2	Hull	18	8	3	7	+4	27
3	Ipswich	17	8	3	6	-2	27
4	Burnley	17	6	8	3	+5	26
5	Birmingham	17	6	7	4	+5	25
6	Brighton	16	5	9	2	+3	24
7	Derby	16	6	6	4	+1	24
8	Wolves	18	6	4	8	-4	22
9	Preston	17	5	6	6	-1	21
10	Cardiff	18	5	6	7	-3	21
11	Brentford	17	5	4	8	-5	19
12	Leeds	16	4	7	5	-5	19
13	Bristol City	17	5	4	8	-12	19
14	Nott'm Forest	16	4	6	6	-3	18
15	Sheffield Weds	16	4	6	6	-4	18
16	QPR	17	4	6	7	-5	18
17	Huddersfield	17	4	5	8	-7	17
18	Fulham	17	3	7	7	-6	16
19	Blackburn	17	3	6	8	-5	15
20	Reading	16	4	3	9	-6	15
21	Milton Keynes Dons	17	2	5	10	-12	11
22	Charlton	17	2	3	12	-26	9
23	Rotherham	17	2	2	13	-17	8
24	Bolton	17	0	4	13	-24	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.