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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Southampton

U T S S U

3–1

Full-time

Burnley

T U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 25%

33%

17%

Average goals

1,8

2,2

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

This season — Premier League · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 29%

29%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 29%

29%

Both score Ø 29%

43%

14%

Average goals

1,9

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

0,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

64% Possession 36%

34 Shots 6

14 Shots on target 1

11 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 11

8 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 12. · Burnley 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	8	6	1	1	+11	19
2	Arsenal	8	6	1	1	+10	19
3	Tottenham	8	5	3	0	+9	18
4	Liverpool	7	5	1	1	+8	16
5	Chelsea	8	5	1	2	+6	16
6	Everton	8	4	3	1	+6	15
7	Man United	7	4	1	2	+5	13
8	Crystal Palace	8	3	2	3	+2	11
9	Watford	8	3	2	3	+0	11
10	Bournemouth	8	3	2	3	+0	11
11	West Brom	8	2	4	2	+1	10
12	Southampton	7	2	3	2	+1	9
13	Leicester	8	2	2	4	-6	8
14	Burnley	7	2	1	4	-4	7
15	West Ham	8	2	1	5	-8	7
16	Hull	8	2	1	5	-12	7
17	Middlesbrough	8	1	3	4	-4	6
18	Stoke	8	1	3	4	-9	6
19	Swansea	8	1	1	6	-7	4
20	Sunderland	8	0	2	6	-9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	3	1	0	+7	10
2	Tottenham	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+6	9
4	Bournemouth	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Arsenal	4	3	0	1	+4	9
6	Leicester	4	2	2	0	+4	8
7	Everton	4	2	2	0	+3	8
8	Man United	4	2	1	1	+4	7
9	Burnley	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+7	6
11	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+1	5
12	Southampton	3	1	2	0	+1	5
13	Crystal Palace	4	1	1	2	+1	4
14	Watford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
15	West Ham	4	1	1	2	-4	4
16	Stoke	4	1	1	2	-5	4
17	Hull	4	1	0	3	-5	3
18	Middlesbrough	4	0	1	3	-3	1
19	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Swansea	4	0	1	3	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+6	10
2	Liverpool	5	3	1	1	+1	10
3	Man City	4	3	0	1	+4	9
4	Tottenham	4	2	2	0	+5	8
5	Everton	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Watford	4	2	1	1	+1	7
7	Crystal Palace	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Chelsea	4	2	1	1	+0	7
9	Man United	3	2	0	1	+1	6
10	West Brom	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	-1	5
12	Southampton	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Hull	4	1	1	2	-7	4
14	Swansea	4	1	0	3	-2	3
15	West Ham	4	1	0	3	-4	3
16	Stoke	4	0	2	2	-4	2
17	Bournemouth	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-4	1
19	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-6	0
20	Leicester	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.