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Ligue 1

Referee: Jerome Miguelgorry

Marseille

T U T S U

1–0

Full-time

Metz

S U T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

1,1

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

63%

Both score Ø 38%

63%

13%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,1

Conceded

1,3

1,9

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

61% Possession 39%

16 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 1

2 Blocked shots 6

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

2 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 16. · Metz 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	9	7	2	0	+11	23
2	Paris SG	9	6	1	2	+12	19
3	Monaco	9	6	1	2	+11	19
4	Toulouse	9	5	2	2	+7	17
5	Guingamp	9	4	2	3	+2	14
6	Bordeaux	9	4	2	3	+1	14
7	Rennes	9	4	2	3	-1	14
8	Lyon	9	4	1	4	+4	13
9	St Etienne	9	3	4	2	+2	13
10	Angers	9	4	1	4	+0	13
11	Metz	8	4	1	3	-6	13
12	Nantes	9	3	2	4	-3	11
13	Bastia	9	3	1	5	-1	10
14	Montpellier	9	2	4	3	-5	10
15	Caen	9	3	1	5	-8	10
16	Marseille	8	2	3	3	+0	9
17	Dijon	9	2	3	4	-2	9
18	Lille	9	2	1	6	-7	7
19	Lorient	9	2	0	7	-9	6
20	Nancy	9	1	2	6	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	6	5	1	0	+9	16
2	Rennes	5	4	1	0	+6	13
3	Toulouse	4	4	0	0	+8	12
4	St Etienne	5	3	2	0	+5	11
5	Paris SG	4	3	1	0	+8	10
6	Monaco	4	3	1	0	+6	10
7	Guingamp	4	3	1	0	+3	10
8	Lyon	4	3	0	1	+6	9
9	Caen	4	3	0	1	-2	9
10	Dijon	5	2	2	1	+4	8
11	Marseille	4	2	2	0	+3	8
12	Montpellier	5	2	2	1	+1	8
13	Angers	4	2	1	1	+2	7
14	Bordeaux	4	2	1	1	+1	7
15	Bastia	5	2	1	2	+0	7
16	Lille	4	2	0	2	-2	6
17	Lorient	5	2	0	3	-4	6
18	Metz	4	2	0	2	-7	6
19	Nantes	4	1	1	2	-3	4
20	Nancy	5	0	1	4	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	5	3	0	2	+5	9
2	Paris SG	5	3	0	2	+4	9
3	Nice	3	2	1	0	+2	7
4	Metz	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Bordeaux	5	2	1	2	+0	7
6	Nantes	5	2	1	2	+0	7
7	Angers	5	2	0	3	-2	6
8	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	-1	5
9	Guingamp	5	1	1	3	-1	4
10	Nancy	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Lyon	5	1	1	3	-2	4
12	Bastia	4	1	0	3	-1	3
13	St Etienne	4	0	2	2	-3	2
14	Montpellier	4	0	2	2	-6	2
15	Marseille	4	0	1	3	-3	1
16	Lille	5	0	1	4	-5	1
17	Caen	5	0	1	4	-6	1
18	Dijon	4	0	1	3	-6	1
19	Rennes	4	0	1	3	-7	1
20	Lorient	4	0	0	4	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.