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Premier League

Referee: Mike Jones

Southampton

S U T U T

1–0

Full-time

Swansea

U S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Swansea

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 13%

25%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

25%

50%

Both score Ø 63%

75%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

19 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

7 Corners 1

5 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 18. · Swansea 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	5	5	0	0	+11	15
2	Everton	5	4	1	0	+7	13
3	Arsenal	5	3	1	1	+5	10
4	Chelsea	5	3	1	1	+4	10
5	Liverpool	5	3	1	1	+3	10
6	Man United	5	3	0	2	+2	9
7	Tottenham	4	2	2	0	+5	8
8	Watford	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	West Brom	5	2	1	2	+1	7
10	Leicester	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Hull	5	2	1	2	-1	7
12	Middlesbrough	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Crystal Palace	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Swansea	4	1	1	2	-2	4
15	Burnley	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Bournemouth	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	West Ham	5	1	0	4	-6	3
18	Southampton	4	0	2	2	-3	2
19	Sunderland	4	0	1	3	-5	1
20	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Leicester	3	2	1	0	+4	7
3	Everton	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Chelsea	3	2	0	1	+3	6
5	West Brom	3	1	1	1	+1	4
6	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+1	4
7	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+3	3
9	Man United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
10	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Watford	3	1	0	2	-1	3
12	West Ham	2	1	0	1	-1	3
13	Bournemouth	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Hull	3	1	0	2	-3	3
15	Southampton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Crystal Palace	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Swansea	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Sunderland	2	0	0	2	-4	0
20	Stoke	2	0	0	2	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Arsenal	3	2	1	0	+5	7
2	Liverpool	4	2	1	1	+0	7
3	Man City	2	2	0	0	+4	6
4	Everton	2	2	0	0	+4	6
5	Man United	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+4	4
7	Watford	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Hull	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Chelsea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	-1	4
11	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	West Brom	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Sunderland	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Bournemouth	3	0	1	2	-5	1
17	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Leicester	2	0	0	2	-4	0
19	West Ham	3	0	0	3	-5	0
20	Burnley	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.