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Premier League

Referee: Martin Atkinson

Chelsea

S T S S U

3–1

Full-time

Arsenal

S U S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

2,2

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

+1,2

This season — Premier League · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 70%

78%

61%

Points per game

2,4

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

61%

70%

Both score Ø 53%

35%

70%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

2,1

2,2

Conceded

0,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%

13 Shots 9

6 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 13

4 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 1. · Arsenal 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	23	18	2	3	+32	56
2	Tottenham	23	13	8	2	+29	47
3	Arsenal	23	14	5	4	+26	47
4	Liverpool	23	13	7	3	+24	46
5	Man City	23	14	4	5	+19	46
6	Man United	23	11	9	3	+12	42
7	Everton	23	10	7	6	+10	37
8	West Brom	23	9	6	8	+2	33
9	Stoke	23	7	8	8	-6	29
10	Burnley	23	9	2	12	-8	29
11	West Ham	23	8	4	11	-11	28
12	Southampton	23	7	6	10	-5	27
13	Watford	23	7	6	10	-12	27
14	Bournemouth	23	7	5	11	-9	26
15	Middlesbrough	23	4	9	10	-7	21
16	Leicester	23	5	6	12	-14	21
17	Swansea	23	6	3	14	-24	21
18	Crystal Palace	23	5	4	14	-9	19
19	Hull	23	4	5	14	-27	17
20	Sunderland	23	4	4	15	-22	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	11	10	0	1	+24	30
2	Tottenham	11	9	2	0	+20	29
3	Burnley	13	9	1	3	+10	28
4	Arsenal	12	8	2	2	+11	26
5	Liverpool	11	7	3	1	+18	24
6	Everton	11	6	4	1	+12	22
7	Man City	11	6	4	1	+9	22
8	Man United	12	5	6	1	+8	21
9	West Brom	11	6	2	3	+7	20
10	Leicester	11	5	3	3	+3	18
11	Bournemouth	12	5	3	4	+2	18
12	Southampton	11	5	3	3	+2	18
13	Stoke	12	4	5	3	+0	17
14	West Ham	12	5	2	5	-8	17
15	Watford	11	4	3	4	-2	15
16	Middlesbrough	12	3	3	6	-3	12
17	Sunderland	12	3	3	6	-6	12
18	Hull	11	3	3	5	-7	12
19	Swansea	12	3	2	7	-12	11
20	Crystal Palace	11	2	1	8	-3	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	12	8	2	2	+8	26
2	Man City	12	8	0	4	+10	24
3	Liverpool	12	6	4	2	+6	22
4	Arsenal	11	6	3	2	+15	21
5	Man United	11	6	3	2	+4	21
6	Tottenham	12	4	6	2	+9	18
7	Everton	12	4	3	5	-2	15
8	West Brom	12	3	4	5	-5	13
9	Crystal Palace	12	3	3	6	-6	12
10	Stoke	11	3	3	5	-6	12
11	Watford	12	3	3	6	-10	12
12	West Ham	11	3	2	6	-3	11
13	Swansea	11	3	1	7	-12	10
14	Middlesbrough	11	1	6	4	-4	9
15	Southampton	12	2	3	7	-7	9
16	Bournemouth	11	2	2	7	-11	8
17	Hull	12	1	2	9	-20	5
18	Sunderland	11	1	1	9	-16	4
19	Leicester	12	0	3	9	-17	3
20	Burnley	10	0	1	9	-18	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.