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Eredivisie

Referee: Bas Nijhuis

Heerenveen

S T S T U

1–2

Full-time

AZ Alkmaar

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Heerenveen AZ Alkmaar

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,2

3,7

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,7

This season — Eredivisie · 19/19 matches

Win Ø 42%

47%

37%

Points per game

1,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

68%

58%

Both score Ø 66%

63%

68%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,8

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

49% Possession 51%

10 Shots 17

3 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 3

14 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Heerenveen 5. · AZ Alkmaar 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	22	18	3	1	+46	57
2	Ajax	21	15	4	2	+30	49
3	PSV Eindhoven	21	13	7	1	+23	46
4	Vitesse	22	9	6	7	+5	33
5	Heerenveen	19	9	5	5	+13	32
6	Twente	22	8	7	7	+1	31
7	Utrecht	18	8	6	4	+6	30
8	AZ Alkmaar	19	7	8	4	+6	29
9	Heracles	22	6	7	9	-7	25
10	Willem II	22	6	7	9	-8	25
11	Nijmegen	22	6	7	9	-14	25
12	Groningen	21	5	8	8	-3	23
13	Zwolle	22	6	5	11	-20	23
14	Excelsior	22	4	7	11	-15	19
15	Go Ahead Eagles	22	5	4	13	-15	19
16	Sparta Rotterdam	21	4	6	11	-10	18
17	Roda	22	2	11	9	-15	17
18	Den Haag	22	5	2	15	-23	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	12	10	2	0	+29	32
2	Ajax	10	7	2	1	+16	23
3	PSV Eindhoven	10	6	3	1	+7	21
4	Heerenveen	9	5	3	1	+7	18
5	Twente	11	5	3	3	+4	18
6	Vitesse	11	5	2	4	+2	17
7	Nijmegen	11	4	4	3	+1	16
8	Heracles	11	4	3	4	+1	15
9	AZ Alkmaar	10	3	5	2	+2	14
10	Utrecht	9	4	2	3	+2	14
11	Excelsior	11	3	4	4	-1	13
12	Go Ahead Eagles	11	4	1	6	-3	13
13	Willem II	12	3	4	5	-6	13
14	Sparta Rotterdam	10	3	3	4	+0	12
15	Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12
16	Groningen	10	2	5	3	-6	11
17	Den Haag	10	3	1	6	-6	10
18	Roda	11	1	5	5	-5	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	11	8	2	1	+14	26
2	Feyenoord	10	8	1	1	+17	25
3	PSV Eindhoven	11	7	4	0	+16	25
4	Utrecht	9	4	4	1	+4	16
5	Vitesse	11	4	4	3	+3	16
6	AZ Alkmaar	9	4	3	2	+4	15
7	Heerenveen	10	4	2	4	+6	14
8	Twente	11	3	4	4	-3	13
9	Groningen	11	3	3	5	+3	12
10	Willem II	10	3	3	4	-2	12
11	Zwolle	10	3	2	5	-9	11
12	Heracles	11	2	4	5	-8	10
13	Roda	11	1	6	4	-10	9
14	Nijmegen	11	2	3	6	-15	9
15	Den Haag	12	2	1	9	-17	7
16	Sparta Rotterdam	11	1	3	7	-10	6
17	Go Ahead Eagles	11	1	3	7	-12	6
18	Excelsior	11	1	3	7	-14	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.