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Premier League

Referee: Paul Tierney

Burnley

T T S S T

1–0

Full-time

Southampton

U S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Southampton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,0

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,3

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,7

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 33%

35%

30%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

55%

45%

Both score Ø 45%

45%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

40% Possession 60%

9 Shots 20

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 8

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 7

0 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 14

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 12. · Southampton 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	20	16	1	3	+27	49
2	Tottenham	21	13	6	2	+29	45
3	Liverpool	20	13	5	2	+25	44
4	Man City	20	13	3	4	+19	42
5	Arsenal	20	12	5	3	+22	41
6	Man United	20	11	6	3	+12	39
7	Everton	20	8	6	6	+5	30
8	West Brom	21	8	5	8	+0	29
9	Bournemouth	20	7	4	9	-5	25
10	Southampton	20	6	6	8	-6	24
11	Stoke	20	6	6	8	-8	24
12	Burnley	20	7	2	11	-9	23
13	West Ham	20	6	4	10	-12	22
14	Watford	20	6	4	10	-13	22
15	Leicester	20	5	6	9	-7	21
16	Middlesbrough	20	4	7	9	-5	19
17	Crystal Palace	20	4	4	12	-7	16
18	Sunderland	20	4	3	13	-18	15
19	Swansea	20	4	3	13	-22	15
20	Hull	20	3	4	13	-27	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	11	9	2	0	+20	29
2	Chelsea	10	9	0	1	+22	27
3	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+19	23
4	Arsenal	10	7	2	1	+11	23
5	Burnley	11	7	1	3	+8	22
6	Man City	10	6	3	1	+9	21
7	Man United	10	5	4	1	+8	19
8	Everton	10	5	4	1	+8	19
9	Leicester	10	5	3	2	+6	18
10	West Brom	10	5	2	3	+5	17
11	Bournemouth	10	5	2	3	+4	17
12	Stoke	10	4	3	3	+0	15
13	Southampton	10	4	3	3	-1	15
14	Watford	10	4	2	4	-2	14
15	West Ham	10	4	2	4	-7	14
16	Middlesbrough	10	3	2	5	-1	11
17	Sunderland	10	3	2	5	-4	11
18	Hull	10	2	3	5	-9	9
19	Swansea	10	2	2	6	-9	8
20	Crystal Palace	10	2	1	7	-2	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Chelsea	10	7	1	2	+5	22
2	Man City	10	7	0	3	+10	21
3	Liverpool	11	6	3	2	+6	21
4	Man United	10	6	2	2	+4	20
5	Arsenal	10	5	3	2	+11	18
6	Tottenham	10	4	4	2	+9	16
7	West Brom	11	3	3	5	-5	12
8	Everton	10	3	2	5	-3	11
9	Crystal Palace	10	2	3	5	-5	9
10	Southampton	10	2	3	5	-5	9
11	Stoke	10	2	3	5	-8	9
12	Middlesbrough	10	1	5	4	-4	8
13	West Ham	10	2	2	6	-5	8
14	Bournemouth	10	2	2	6	-9	8
15	Watford	10	2	2	6	-11	8
16	Swansea	10	2	1	7	-13	7
17	Sunderland	10	1	1	8	-14	4
18	Hull	10	1	1	8	-18	4
19	Leicester	10	0	3	7	-13	3
20	Burnley	9	0	1	8	-17	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.