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La Liga

Referee: Jesus Gil Manzano

Celta

S U S T T

3–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

U T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

2,3

1,2

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

This season — La Liga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 30%

30%

Points per game

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

70%

30%

Both score Ø 50%

70%

30%

Average goals

3,5

2,2

Scored

1,9

1,0

Conceded

1,6

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–1

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

4 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 14. · Ath Bilbao 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	11	10	1	0	+26	31
2	Valencia	11	8	3	0	+19	27
3	Ath Madrid	11	6	5	0	+10	23
4	Real Madrid	10	6	2	2	+10	20
5	Sevilla	11	6	1	4	+1	19
6	Villarreal	10	5	2	3	+5	17
7	Betis	11	5	2	4	+1	17
8	Leganes	11	5	2	4	+1	17
9	Girona	11	4	3	4	-3	15
10	Sociedad	10	4	2	4	+1	14
11	Getafe	11	3	4	4	+2	13
12	Espanol	11	3	4	4	-4	13
13	Levante	11	2	6	3	-3	12
14	Celta	10	3	2	5	+3	11
15	Ath Bilbao	10	3	2	5	-2	11
16	La Coruna	11	3	2	6	-7	11
17	Eibar	10	2	2	6	-17	8
18	Alaves	11	2	0	9	-11	6
19	Las Palmas	10	2	0	8	-17	6
20	Malaga	10	1	1	8	-15	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	6	6	0	0	+18	18
2	Valencia	6	5	1	0	+14	16
3	Sevilla	5	4	1	0	+7	13
4	Betis	6	4	1	1	+5	13
5	Villarreal	4	3	1	0	+9	10
6	Espanol	5	3	1	1	+4	10
7	Levante	7	2	3	2	+1	9
8	Real Madrid	5	2	2	1	+4	8
9	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+3	8
10	Leganes	5	2	2	1	+1	8
11	Ath Bilbao	5	2	1	2	+0	7
12	Girona	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Getafe	5	2	0	3	+2	6
14	La Coruna	6	2	0	4	-5	6
15	Sociedad	5	1	2	2	+0	5
16	Celta	5	1	2	2	-1	5
17	Eibar	5	1	2	2	-4	5
18	Malaga	5	1	1	3	-4	4
19	Alaves	6	1	0	5	-8	3
20	Las Palmas	5	1	0	4	-10	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	7	4	3	0	+7	15
2	Barcelona	5	4	1	0	+8	13
3	Real Madrid	5	4	0	1	+6	12
4	Valencia	5	3	2	0	+5	11
5	Sociedad	5	3	0	2	+1	9
6	Leganes	6	3	0	3	+0	9
7	Girona	5	2	2	1	+0	8
8	Getafe	6	1	4	1	+0	7
9	Villarreal	6	2	1	3	-4	7
10	Celta	5	2	0	3	+4	6
11	Sevilla	6	2	0	4	-6	6
12	La Coruna	5	1	2	2	-2	5
13	Ath Bilbao	5	1	1	3	-2	4
14	Betis	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Alaves	5	1	0	4	-3	3
16	Levante	4	0	3	1	-4	3
17	Las Palmas	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Espanol	6	0	3	3	-8	3
19	Eibar	5	1	0	4	-13	3
20	Malaga	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.