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Premier League

Referee: Anthony Taylor

Newcastle

U T S S S

2–1

Full-time

Arsenal

T T S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,5

1,7

Conceded

0,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — Premier League · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 41%

31%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

41%

66%

Both score Ø 49%

44%

53%

Average goals

2,3

3,3

Scored

1,0

1,9

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

28% Possession 72%

8 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

2 Corners 5

1 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Newcastle 10. · Arsenal 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	33	28	3	2	+68	87
2	Man United	32	22	5	5	+38	71
3	Liverpool	34	20	10	4	+43	70
4	Tottenham	33	20	7	6	+35	67
5	Chelsea	33	18	6	9	+24	60
6	Arsenal	32	16	6	10	+18	54
7	Burnley	33	14	10	9	+4	52
8	Leicester	33	11	10	12	+2	43
9	Everton	34	11	9	14	-15	42
10	Newcastle	32	10	8	14	-8	38
11	Bournemouth	34	9	11	14	-15	38
12	Watford	34	10	7	17	-18	37
13	Brighton	33	8	11	14	-15	35
14	Huddersfield	34	9	8	17	-27	35
15	West Ham	32	8	10	14	-18	34
16	Crystal Palace	34	8	10	16	-18	34
17	Swansea	33	8	9	16	-19	33
18	Southampton	33	5	13	15	-20	28
19	Stoke	33	6	9	18	-33	27
20	West Brom	33	3	12	18	-26	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	16	14	1	1	+40	43
2	Man United	16	13	2	1	+28	41
3	Arsenal	17	13	2	2	+26	41
4	Liverpool	17	11	6	0	+31	39
5	Tottenham	16	10	4	2	+20	34
6	Chelsea	17	10	3	4	+13	33
7	Everton	17	9	3	5	+5	30
8	Burnley	16	7	4	5	+1	25
9	Brighton	17	6	7	4	-2	25
10	Leicester	16	6	5	5	+3	23
11	Bournemouth	17	6	5	6	-3	23
12	Watford	17	6	5	6	-5	23
13	Huddersfield	17	6	5	6	-6	23
14	Newcastle	16	6	4	6	+1	22
15	West Ham	15	6	4	5	-1	22
16	Swansea	16	6	3	7	-4	21
17	Crystal Palace	17	5	5	7	-5	20
18	Stoke	17	5	4	8	-9	19
19	Southampton	17	3	7	7	-6	16
20	West Brom	17	2	8	7	-9	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	14	2	1	+28	44
2	Tottenham	17	10	3	4	+15	33
3	Liverpool	17	9	4	4	+12	31
4	Man United	16	9	3	4	+10	30
5	Chelsea	16	8	3	5	+11	27
6	Burnley	17	7	6	4	+3	27
7	Leicester	17	5	5	7	-1	20
8	Newcastle	16	4	4	8	-9	16
9	Bournemouth	17	3	6	8	-12	15
10	Watford	17	4	2	11	-13	14
11	Crystal Palace	17	3	5	9	-13	14
12	Arsenal	15	3	4	8	-8	13
13	Southampton	16	2	6	8	-14	12
14	Swansea	17	2	6	9	-15	12
15	West Ham	17	2	6	9	-17	12
16	Everton	17	2	6	9	-20	12
17	Huddersfield	17	3	3	11	-21	12
18	Brighton	16	2	4	10	-13	10
19	Stoke	16	1	5	10	-24	8
20	West Brom	16	1	4	11	-17	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.