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Primeira Liga
Referee: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao
Belenenses
U U T S U
3–4
Full-time
Sp Lisbon
T S S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Sp Lisbon
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
33%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
17%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
1,3
2,0
Scored
0,8
1,3
Conceded
0,5
0,7
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+0,7
This season — Primeira Liga · 29/29 matches
Win Ø 50%
28%
72%
Points per game
1,1
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 38%
34%
41%
Both score Ø 40%
38%
41%
Average goals
2,2
2,5
Scored
0,9
1,9
Conceded
1,3
0,6
Goal diff per game
-0,4
+1,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–3

57% Possession 43%
12 Shots 13
7 Shots on target 5
2 Blocked shots 4
1 Goalkeeper saves 4
3 Corners 4
0 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 19
3 Yellow cards 6
2 Red cards 0
The table before the match Belenenses 11. · Sp Lisbon 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Porto 30 24 4 2 +57 76
2 Benfica 30 23 5 2 +57 74
3 Sp Braga 30 22 2 6 +43 68
4 Sp Lisbon 29 21 5 3 +37 68
5 Maritimo 30 12 8 10 -8 44
6 Rio Ave 29 13 4 12 -3 43
7 Boavista 30 11 5 14 -10 38
8 Chaves 30 10 8 12 -12 38
9 Guimaraes 30 11 4 15 -13 37
10 Portimonense 30 9 8 13 -7 35
11 Belenenses 29 8 9 12 -11 33
12 Tondela 29 8 7 14 -9 31
13 Vitoria Setubal 30 6 11 13 -17 29
14 Moreirense 30 7 8 15 -17 29
15 Aves 30 7 7 16 -15 28
16 Pacos Ferreira 30 7 7 16 -23 28
17 Estoril 30 7 5 18 -31 26
18 Feirense 30 7 3 20 -18 24

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Belenenses Sp Lisbon
6′
🟨 Rui Patrício
1–0 H. Yebda
7′
11′
🟨 André Pinto
12′
B. Dost 1–1
Bruno Fernandes
16′
Gelson Martins 1–2
Bruno Fernandes
Hassan Yebda 🟨
31′
Gonçalo Silva 🟨
39′
41′
M. Acuña 1–3
Half-time 1–3
Nathan 🔁
↦ Yazalde
46′
46′
🔁 Wendel
↦ Fábio Coentrão
Bruno Pereirinha 🔁
↦ R. Åhman-Persson
59′
2–3 Licá
F. Hanin
65′
Maurides 🔁
↦ Diogo Viana
66′
67′
🟨 Marcos Acuña
3–3 Fredy
70′
Hassan Yebda 🟨
75′
Hassan Yebda 🟥
75′
76′
🟨 Bas Dost
80′
Bruno Fernandes 3–4
86′
🔁 L. Agbenyenu
↦ B. Ruiz
89′
🔁 R. Petrović
↦ Bruno Fernandes
Vincent Sasso 🟥
90′
90′
🟨 Wendel
90′
🟨 Rodrigo Battaglia
Full-time 3–4

Line-ups

Belenenses

3-4-2-1
95 André Moreira G
3 R. Åhman-Persson M
6 V. Sasso D
29 F. Hanin D
37 Gonçalo Silva D
23 H. Yebda M
88 M. Bakić M
14 Licá F
13 Yazalde F
12 Fredy F
10 Diogo Viana M
Bench (7)
19 Nathan
17 Bruno Pereirinha
16 Maurides
1 Muriel
8 André Sousa
21 Benny
25 Nuno Tomás

Coach: Silas

Sp Lisbon

4-2-3-1
1 Rui Patrício G
5 Fábio Coentrão D
6 André Pinto D
4 S. Coates D
13 S. Ristovski D
16 R. Battaglia M
8 Bruno Fernandes M
20 B. Ruiz M
28 B. Dost F
9 M. Acuña M
77 Gelson Martins M
Bench (7)
37 Wendel
15 L. Agbenyenu
25 R. Petrović
7 Rúben Ribeiro
18 R. Salin
40 F. Montero
88 S. Doumbia

Coach: Jorge Jesus

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao · 40 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
5,1 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,0 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,58 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.