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Premier League

Referee: Andy Madley

Watford

U T T T U

3–2

Full-time

Cardiff

S T S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Cardiff

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

0,7

1,0

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,2

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 32%

38%

25%

Points per game

1,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

56%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,8

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,4

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

71% Possession 29%

17 Shots 10

8 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 0

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 12. · Cardiff 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	14	2	1	+38	44
2	Liverpool	16	13	3	0	+28	42
3	Tottenham	16	12	0	4	+14	36
4	Chelsea	16	10	4	2	+20	34
5	Arsenal	16	10	4	2	+15	34
6	Man United	16	7	5	4	+2	26
7	Everton	17	6	6	5	+2	24
8	Bournemouth	16	7	2	7	-1	23
9	Leicester	16	6	4	6	+1	22
10	Wolves	16	6	4	6	-2	22
11	West Ham	16	6	3	7	-2	21
12	Watford	16	6	3	7	-3	21
13	Brighton	16	6	3	7	-3	21
14	Cardiff	16	4	2	10	-15	14
15	Newcastle	16	3	4	9	-9	13
16	Crystal Palace	16	3	3	10	-10	12
17	Burnley	16	3	3	10	-17	12
18	Huddersfield	16	2	4	10	-17	10
19	Southampton	16	1	6	9	-17	9
20	Fulham	16	2	3	11	-24	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	9	0	0	+27	27
2	Chelsea	9	6	3	0	+12	21
3	Arsenal	9	6	2	1	+9	20
4	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+14	19
5	Everton	9	5	3	1	+7	18
6	Man United	8	4	3	1	+3	15
7	Brighton	7	4	2	1	+4	14
8	Bournemouth	9	4	2	3	+0	14
9	West Ham	9	4	1	4	+0	13
10	Cardiff	9	4	1	4	-3	13
11	Tottenham	6	4	0	2	+5	12
12	Watford	8	4	0	4	-2	12
13	Leicester	8	3	2	3	+2	11
14	Wolves	8	3	2	3	-1	11
15	Fulham	7	2	2	3	-6	8
16	Burnley	8	2	1	5	-6	7
17	Newcastle	9	2	0	7	-8	6
18	Southampton	7	0	5	2	-4	5
19	Crystal Palace	7	1	2	4	-4	5
20	Huddersfield	8	1	2	5	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	10	8	0	2	+9	24
2	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+14	23
3	Man City	8	5	2	1	+11	17
4	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	+8	13
6	Man United	8	3	2	3	-1	11
7	Leicester	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Wolves	8	3	2	3	-1	11
9	Bournemouth	7	3	0	4	-1	9
10	Watford	8	2	3	3	-1	9
11	West Ham	7	2	2	3	-2	8
12	Newcastle	7	1	4	2	-1	7
13	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-6	7
14	Brighton	9	2	1	6	-7	7
15	Everton	8	1	3	4	-5	6
16	Huddersfield	8	1	2	5	-10	5
17	Burnley	8	1	2	5	-11	5
18	Southampton	9	1	1	7	-13	4
19	Cardiff	7	0	1	6	-12	1
20	Fulham	9	0	1	8	-18	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.