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Premier League
Referee: Chris Kavanagh
Newcastle
U S T T T
0–3
Full-time
Watford
S T T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Newcastle Watford
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,8
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,3
3,5
Scored
0,8
1,7
Conceded
1,5
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,2
This season — Premier League · 12/12 matches
Win Ø 38%
33%
42%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 46%
33%
58%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
2,1
3,3
Scored
0,9
1,6
Conceded
1,2
1,8
Goal diff per game
-0,3
-0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

52% Possession 48%
12 Shots 12
2 Shots on target 4
5 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
6 Corners 3
4 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 13
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Newcastle 12. · Watford 8.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man City 12 11 1 0 +33 34
2 Man United 12 8 2 2 +21 26
3 Chelsea 12 8 1 3 +13 25
4 Tottenham 12 7 2 3 +11 23
5 Liverpool 12 6 4 2 +7 22
6 Arsenal 12 7 1 4 +6 22
7 Burnley 12 6 4 2 +3 22
8 Watford 12 5 3 4 -2 18
9 Brighton 12 4 4 4 +0 16
10 Huddersfield 12 4 3 5 -9 15
11 Leicester 13 3 5 5 -2 14
12 Newcastle 12 4 2 6 -3 14
13 Bournemouth 12 4 1 7 -3 13
14 Southampton 12 3 4 5 -5 13
15 Stoke 12 3 4 5 -9 13
16 Everton 12 3 3 6 -12 12
17 West Brom 12 2 4 6 -9 10
18 West Ham 13 2 4 7 -14 10
19 Swansea 12 2 2 8 -8 8
20 Crystal Palace 12 1 2 9 -18 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Newcastle Watford
Jonjo Shelvey 🟨
15′
19′
W. Hughes 0–1
M. Zeegelaar
24′
🟨 Marvin Zeegelaar
Half-time 1–1
46′
D. Yedlin 1–1
own goal
52′
🔁 S. Prödl
↦ M. Britos
62′
A. Gray 1–2
Richarlison
Mikel Merino 🔁
↦ M. Diamé
69′
A. Mitrović 🔁
↦ Joselu
69′
Ayoze Pérez 🔁
↦ Jacob Murphy
77′
79′
🔁 R. Pereyra
↦ Richarlison
84′
🔁 A. Carrillo
↦ W. Hughes
90′
🟨 Sebastian Prödl
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Newcastle

4-4-2
1 R. Elliot G
2 C. Clark D
20 F. Lejeune D
19 Javi Manquillo D
22 D. Yedlin D
8 J. Shelvey M
10 M. Diamé M
11 M. Ritchie M
7 Jacob Murphy M
21 Joselu F
9 D. Gayle F
Bench (7)
23 Mikel Merino
45 A. Mitrović
17 Ayoze Pérez
16 R. Aarons
18 C. Mbemba
26 K. Darlow
27 Jesús Gámez

Coach: Rafael Benítez

Watford

3-4-2-1
1 Gomes G
6 A. Mariappa D
3 M. Britos D
27 C. Kabasele D
21 Kiko Femenía M
22 M. Zeegelaar M
8 T. Cleverley M
16 A. Doucouré M
19 W. Hughes F
18 A. Gray F
11 Richarlison F
Bench (7)
5 S. Prödl
37 R. Pereyra
28 A. Carrillo
2 D. Janmaat
23 B. Watson
29 E. Capoue
30 O. Karnezis

Coach: Marco Silva

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Chris Kavanagh · 136 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
19,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,10 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.