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Championship

Referee: Andy Woolmer

Derby

S T U S T

4–1

Full-time

Bolton

U T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Bolton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,5

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,5

2,7

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,8

This season — Championship · 38/40 matches

Win Ø 26%

42%

10%

Points per game

1,6

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

39%

55%

Both score Ø 50%

45%

55%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,3

0,9

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

70% Possession 30%

25 Shots 8

8 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 6

3 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 7. · Bolton 24. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	41	22	14	5	+31	80
2	Middlesbrough	39	23	7	9	+29	76
3	Brighton	38	20	13	5	+18	73
4	Hull	36	20	8	8	+33	68
5	Sheffield Weds	37	18	11	8	+22	65
6	Cardiff	40	16	15	9	+9	63
7	Derby	38	16	13	9	+13	61
8	Ipswich	40	16	12	12	+2	60
9	Birmingham	39	15	11	13	+4	56
10	Preston	40	14	14	12	+1	56
11	QPR	40	12	16	12	+3	52
12	Wolves	40	13	13	14	-4	52
13	Reading	39	13	12	14	+1	51
14	Brentford	39	14	7	18	-6	49
15	Leeds	40	11	15	14	-10	48
16	Blackburn	40	11	13	16	-1	46
17	Nott'm Forest	40	11	13	16	-6	46
18	Huddersfield	40	12	9	19	-5	45
19	Fulham	40	10	14	16	-5	44
20	Bristol City	40	11	11	18	-22	44
21	Rotherham	40	12	7	21	-17	43
22	Milton Keynes Dons	40	9	10	21	-21	37
23	Charlton	40	8	12	20	-34	36
24	Bolton	40	4	14	22	-35	26

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	21	14	5	2	+23	47
2	Middlesbrough	19	14	3	2	+24	45
3	Brighton	19	13	3	3	+13	42
4	Hull	17	12	5	0	+30	41
5	Sheffield Weds	19	12	5	2	+22	41
6	Cardiff	20	11	7	2	+12	40
7	Derby	19	10	6	3	+15	36
8	Reading	20	8	9	3	+9	33
9	QPR	20	8	8	4	+10	32
10	Ipswich	20	8	7	5	+5	31
11	Birmingham	19	9	3	7	+2	30
12	Preston	20	7	8	5	+1	29
13	Blackburn	20	7	7	6	+6	28
14	Rotherham	20	8	4	8	-2	28
15	Nott'm Forest	20	7	6	7	+0	27
16	Brentford	20	8	3	9	-1	27
17	Wolves	20	6	8	6	-1	26
18	Huddersfield	20	7	4	9	+4	25
19	Milton Keynes Dons	20	7	3	10	-8	24
20	Fulham	20	6	5	9	+0	23
21	Charlton	20	5	8	7	-6	23
22	Leeds	20	5	8	7	-6	23
23	Bolton	20	4	10	6	-2	22
24	Bristol City	20	5	7	8	-6	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	20	8	9	3	+8	33
2	Brighton	19	7	10	2	+5	31
3	Middlesbrough	20	9	4	7	+5	31
4	Ipswich	20	8	5	7	-3	29
5	Hull	19	8	3	8	+3	27
6	Preston	20	7	6	7	+0	27
7	Birmingham	20	6	8	6	+2	26
8	Wolves	20	7	5	8	-3	26
9	Derby	19	6	7	6	-2	25
10	Leeds	20	6	7	7	-4	25
11	Sheffield Weds	18	6	6	6	+0	24
12	Cardiff	20	5	8	7	-3	23
13	Brentford	19	6	4	9	-5	22
14	Bristol City	20	6	4	10	-16	22
15	Fulham	20	4	9	7	-5	21
16	QPR	20	4	8	8	-7	20
17	Huddersfield	20	5	5	10	-9	20
18	Nott'm Forest	20	4	7	9	-6	19
19	Blackburn	20	4	6	10	-7	18
20	Reading	19	5	3	11	-8	18
21	Rotherham	20	4	3	13	-15	15
22	Milton Keynes Dons	20	2	7	11	-13	13
23	Charlton	20	3	4	13	-28	13
24	Bolton	20	0	4	16	-33	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.