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Serie A

Referee: Daniele Orsato

Milan

S T U U T

1–2

Full-time

Juventus

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Juventus

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

1,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

1,7

1,8

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,0

0,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,5

This season — Serie A · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 58%

42%

74%

Points per game

1,6

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

39%

42%

Both score Ø 44%

52%

35%

Average goals

2,4

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,8

Conceded

1,1

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

44% Possession 56%

11 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 2

2 Offside 2

20 Free kicks against 21

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 6. · Juventus 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	31	23	4	4	+40	73
2	Napoli	31	20	7	4	+36	67
3	Roma	31	18	9	4	+34	63
4	Inter	32	17	7	8	+12	58
5	Fiorentina	31	16	8	7	+18	56
6	Milan	31	13	10	8	+8	49
7	Sassuolo	32	12	12	8	+5	48
8	Chievo	32	12	8	12	-2	44
9	Lazio	31	11	9	11	-3	42
10	Genoa	32	11	7	14	+0	40
11	Torino	31	9	9	13	-4	36
12	Atalanta	31	9	9	13	-6	36
13	Bologna	31	10	6	15	-6	36
14	Empoli	31	9	9	13	-9	36
15	Udinese	31	9	7	15	-17	34
16	Sampdoria	31	8	9	14	-5	33
17	Carpi	32	6	10	16	-21	28
18	Palermo	31	7	7	17	-25	28
19	Frosinone	32	7	6	19	-31	27
20	Verona	31	3	13	15	-24	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	15	12	3	0	+23	39
2	Juventus	15	12	2	1	+17	38
3	Roma	15	10	4	1	+22	34
4	Fiorentina	16	10	4	2	+17	34
5	Inter	16	10	2	4	+9	32
6	Milan	15	9	4	2	+9	31
7	Genoa	16	9	3	4	+11	30
8	Lazio	16	8	3	5	+7	27
9	Atalanta	16	7	4	5	+5	25
10	Sassuolo	16	6	7	3	+2	25
11	Chievo	16	6	6	4	+3	24
12	Sampdoria	15	6	4	5	+5	22
13	Frosinone	17	6	4	7	-5	22
14	Torino	16	5	6	5	+2	21
15	Udinese	15	5	3	7	-6	18
16	Bologna	16	4	5	7	-1	17
17	Empoli	15	4	5	6	-2	17
18	Carpi	16	4	5	7	-5	17
19	Palermo	15	4	3	8	-6	15
20	Verona	16	2	6	8	-10	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	16	11	2	3	+23	35
2	Roma	16	8	5	3	+12	29
3	Napoli	16	8	4	4	+13	28
4	Inter	16	7	5	4	+3	26
5	Sassuolo	16	6	5	5	+3	23
6	Fiorentina	15	6	4	5	+1	22
7	Chievo	16	6	2	8	-5	20
8	Bologna	15	6	1	8	-5	19
9	Empoli	16	5	4	7	-7	19
10	Milan	16	4	6	6	-1	18
11	Udinese	16	4	4	8	-11	16
12	Torino	15	4	3	8	-6	15
13	Lazio	15	3	6	6	-10	15
14	Palermo	16	3	4	9	-19	13
15	Sampdoria	16	2	5	9	-10	11
16	Atalanta	15	2	5	8	-11	11
17	Carpi	16	2	5	9	-16	11
18	Genoa	16	2	4	10	-11	10
19	Verona	15	1	7	7	-14	10
20	Frosinone	15	1	2	12	-26	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.