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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Burton Albion

T T S U

1–0

Full-time

Derby

S U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burton Albion Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 4/6 matches

Win Ø 29%

25%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

100%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,5

1,3

Scored

2,3

0,5

Conceded

2,3

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 25%

25%

Points per game

1,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

4,5

0,8

Scored

2,3

0,3

Conceded

2,3

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

35% Possession 65%

7 Shots 10

4 Shots on target 3

0 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 3

1 Offside 5

14 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burton Albion 18. · Derby 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	4	3	1	0	+3	10
2	Brighton	4	2	2	0	+6	8
3	Wolves	4	2	2	0	+4	8
4	Norwich	4	2	2	0	+4	8
5	Fulham	4	2	2	0	+2	8
6	QPR	4	2	0	2	+2	6
7	Newcastle	4	2	0	2	+2	6
8	Brentford	4	2	0	2	+1	6
9	Barnsley	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	Bristol City	4	2	0	2	+0	6
11	Nott'm Forest	4	2	0	2	-2	6
12	Aston Villa	4	1	2	1	+2	5
13	Ipswich	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Cardiff	4	1	2	1	-1	5
15	Birmingham	4	1	2	1	-1	5
16	Derby	4	1	2	1	-1	5
17	Wigan	4	1	1	2	+1	4
18	Burton Albion	4	1	1	2	+0	4
19	Leeds	4	1	1	2	-2	4
20	Sheffield Weds	4	1	1	2	-3	4
21	Reading	4	1	1	2	-4	4
22	Rotherham	4	1	1	2	-5	4
23	Preston	4	1	0	3	-1	3
24	Blackburn	4	0	1	3	-7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+6	6
2	Barnsley	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Brentford	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Nott'm Forest	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Huddersfield	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Aston Villa	2	1	1	0	+3	4
7	Wigan	2	1	1	0	+3	4
8	Ipswich	2	1	1	0	+2	4
9	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Reading	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Rotherham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
13	Norwich	2	1	1	0	+1	4
14	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+2	3
15	Burton Albion	2	1	0	1	+1	3
16	QPR	2	1	0	1	+1	3
17	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
18	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	-1	3
19	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	-1	3
20	Derby	2	0	2	0	+0	2
21	Leeds	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Birmingham	2	0	1	1	-2	1
23	Blackburn	2	0	1	1	-3	1
24	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	2	1	1	0	+3	4
2	Wolves	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Huddersfield	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Fulham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	QPR	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Preston	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	Bristol City	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Leeds	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Derby	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Cardiff	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Brighton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
14	Burton Albion	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Aston Villa	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Sheffield Weds	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Ipswich	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Wigan	2	0	0	2	-2	0
19	Brentford	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Blackburn	2	0	0	2	-4	0
22	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-4	0
23	Reading	2	0	0	2	-5	0
24	Rotherham	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.