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Ligue 1

Referee: Bartolomeu Varela Teles

Toulouse

T T S T S

1–1

Full-time

Nancy

S U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Nancy

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

1,0

1,2

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 17/17 matches

Win Ø 35%

41%

29%

Points per game

1,5

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

53%

29%

Both score Ø 36%

53%

18%

Average goals

2,3

2,1

Scored

1,2

0,8

Conceded

1,1

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%

5 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 3

0 Offside 7

17 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 7. · Nancy 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	17	12	4	1	+20	40
2	Monaco	17	12	3	2	+37	39
3	Paris SG	18	11	3	4	+18	36
4	Guingamp	18	8	5	5	+6	29
5	Lyon	16	9	1	6	+11	28
6	Rennes	17	8	3	6	-2	27
7	Toulouse	17	7	4	6	+3	25
8	St Etienne	17	6	7	4	+3	25
9	Marseille	17	6	6	5	+0	24
10	Bordeaux	17	6	6	5	-2	24
11	Lille	17	6	2	9	-5	20
12	Montpellier	17	4	7	6	-6	19
13	Angers	18	5	4	9	-7	19
14	Nancy	17	5	4	8	-8	19
15	Metz	16	5	3	8	-15	18
16	Bastia	17	4	5	8	-6	17
17	Dijon	17	3	7	7	-4	16
18	Nantes	17	4	4	9	-15	16
19	Caen	16	4	3	9	-14	15
20	Lorient	17	3	3	11	-14	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	9	7	2	0	+15	23
2	Rennes	9	7	2	0	+10	23
3	Monaco	8	7	1	0	+25	22
4	Paris SG	9	6	3	0	+16	21
5	Guingamp	9	6	2	1	+6	20
6	Toulouse	8	6	0	2	+8	18
7	Marseille	8	5	3	0	+8	18
8	St Etienne	9	4	4	1	+5	16
9	Montpellier	8	4	3	1	+6	15
10	Lyon	8	5	0	3	+5	15
11	Lille	9	5	0	4	+0	15
12	Bordeaux	9	4	2	3	-2	14
13	Caen	8	4	2	2	-3	14
14	Dijon	9	3	4	2	+4	13
15	Nancy	9	4	1	4	+2	13
16	Bastia	9	3	4	2	+2	13
17	Angers	9	3	3	3	+0	12
18	Lorient	8	3	1	4	-6	10
19	Metz	7	2	2	3	-9	8
20	Nantes	8	1	3	4	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+12	17
2	Nice	8	5	2	1	+5	17
3	Paris SG	9	5	0	4	+2	15
4	Lyon	8	4	1	3	+6	13
5	Bordeaux	8	2	4	2	+0	10
6	Nantes	9	3	1	5	-5	10
7	Metz	9	3	1	5	-6	10
8	Guingamp	9	2	3	4	+0	9
9	St Etienne	8	2	3	3	-2	9
10	Toulouse	9	1	4	4	-5	7
11	Angers	9	2	1	6	-7	7
12	Marseille	9	1	3	5	-8	6
13	Nancy	8	1	3	4	-10	6
14	Lille	8	1	2	5	-5	5
15	Bastia	8	1	1	6	-8	4
16	Montpellier	9	0	4	5	-12	4
17	Rennes	8	1	1	6	-12	4
18	Dijon	8	0	3	5	-8	3
19	Lorient	9	0	2	7	-8	2
20	Caen	8	0	1	7	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.