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Championship

Referee: Keith Stroud

Derby

U T U T T

2–1

Full-time

Barnsley

U U S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Barnsley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,3

This season — Championship · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 40%

38%

41%

Points per game

1,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

29%

53%

Both score Ø 37%

24%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,9

Scored

1,1

1,5

Conceded

0,9

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

24 Shots 15

10 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 7

9 Corners 6

13 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 11. · Barnsley 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	34	23	4	7	+38	73
2	Brighton	34	21	8	5	+30	71
3	Leeds	35	20	4	11	+14	64
4	Huddersfield	30	19	5	6	+10	62
5	Reading	31	17	6	8	+7	57
6	Norwich	34	15	7	12	+11	52
7	Sheffield Weds	32	15	7	10	+6	52
8	Preston	34	14	10	10	+5	52
9	Fulham	31	13	11	7	+13	50
10	Barnsley	34	14	8	12	+4	50
11	Derby	34	13	9	12	+5	48
12	Cardiff	34	13	7	14	-2	46
13	Brentford	33	12	7	14	+2	43
14	Birmingham	35	11	10	14	-15	43
15	Aston Villa	34	10	12	12	-5	42
16	Ipswich	34	10	12	12	-7	42
17	QPR	34	11	7	16	-11	40
18	Nott'm Forest	34	10	7	17	-12	37
19	Burton Albion	34	9	9	16	-13	36
20	Wolves	32	9	8	15	-5	35
21	Bristol City	34	9	6	19	-8	33
22	Blackburn	33	8	9	16	-12	33
23	Wigan	34	7	10	17	-10	31
24	Rotherham	34	4	5	25	-45	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Brighton	18	13	3	2	+26	42
2	Leeds	18	12	2	4	+12	38
3	Norwich	17	11	3	3	+21	36
4	Newcastle	17	11	2	4	+20	35
5	Huddersfield	14	11	2	1	+12	35
6	Reading	16	10	4	2	+12	34
7	Aston Villa	17	8	7	2	+9	31
8	Preston	18	9	4	5	+8	31
9	Sheffield Weds	15	10	1	4	+8	31
10	Derby	17	7	6	4	+7	27
11	Nott'm Forest	16	8	3	5	+5	27
12	Cardiff	18	8	3	7	+3	27
13	Brentford	16	7	5	4	+11	26
14	Ipswich	17	6	7	4	+2	25
15	Birmingham	18	7	4	7	-4	25
16	Burton Albion	17	7	3	7	+1	24
17	Barnsley	18	6	6	6	-1	24
18	Fulham	15	6	5	4	+4	23
19	Bristol City	16	7	2	7	+0	23
20	Blackburn	17	6	5	6	-1	23
21	QPR	17	5	4	8	-8	19
22	Rotherham	16	4	4	8	-5	16
23	Wigan	17	3	6	8	-6	15
24	Wolves	16	4	3	9	-7	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	17	12	2	3	+18	38
2	Brighton	16	8	5	3	+4	29
3	Fulham	16	7	6	3	+9	27
4	Huddersfield	16	8	3	5	-2	27
5	Barnsley	16	8	2	6	+5	26
6	Leeds	17	8	2	7	+2	26
7	Reading	15	7	2	6	-5	23
8	Sheffield Weds	17	5	6	6	-2	21
9	Derby	17	6	3	8	-2	21
10	QPR	17	6	3	8	-3	21
11	Preston	16	5	6	5	-3	21
12	Wolves	16	5	5	6	+2	20
13	Cardiff	16	5	4	7	-5	19
14	Birmingham	17	4	6	7	-11	18
15	Brentford	17	5	2	10	-9	17
16	Ipswich	17	4	5	8	-9	17
17	Wigan	17	4	4	9	-4	16
18	Norwich	17	4	4	9	-10	16
19	Burton Albion	17	2	6	9	-14	12
20	Aston Villa	17	2	5	10	-14	11
21	Bristol City	18	2	4	12	-8	10
22	Blackburn	16	2	4	10	-11	10
23	Nott'm Forest	18	2	4	12	-17	10
24	Rotherham	18	0	1	17	-40	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.