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Bundesliga

Referee: Bastian Dankert

Hoffenheim

T S T S U

5–2

Full-time

FC Ingolstadt 04

S T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim FC Ingolstadt 04

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,7

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

This season — Bundesliga · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 32%

41%

23%

Points per game

1,7

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

55%

36%

Both score Ø 55%

64%

45%

Average goals

2,8

2,4

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,7

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

59% Possession 41%

17 Shots 8

12 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 7

3 Corners 6

5 Offside 3

19 Free kicks against 21

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hoffenheim 4. · FC Ingolstadt 04 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	22	16	5	1	+41	53
2	RB Leipzig	23	15	4	4	+19	49
3	Dortmund	22	11	7	4	+23	40
4	Hoffenheim	22	9	11	2	+17	38
5	Hertha	22	11	4	7	+6	37
6	Ein Frankfurt	22	10	5	7	+3	35
7	FC Koln	22	8	9	5	+9	33
8	Leverkusen	22	9	3	10	+2	30
9	Freiburg	22	9	3	10	-11	30
10	M'gladbach	22	8	5	9	-4	29
11	Mainz	22	8	4	10	-6	28
12	Augsburg	23	7	7	9	-7	28
13	Schalke 04	22	7	6	9	+3	27
14	Wolfsburg	22	6	4	12	-13	22
15	Werder Bremen	22	6	4	12	-15	22
16	Hamburg	22	5	5	12	-24	20
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	22	5	3	14	-15	18
18	Darmstadt	22	3	3	16	-28	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hertha	11	9	1	1	+14	28
2	RB Leipzig	11	9	1	1	+12	28
3	Bayern Munich	11	8	3	0	+30	27
4	Dortmund	10	7	3	0	+17	24
5	Hoffenheim	11	6	5	0	+13	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	10	6	3	1	+7	21
7	Freiburg	11	7	0	4	-2	21
8	FC Koln	10	5	5	0	+10	20
9	Schalke 04	12	6	2	4	+8	20
10	M'gladbach	11	5	3	3	+7	18
11	Mainz	11	5	3	3	+4	18
12	Leverkusen	12	5	2	5	+2	17
13	Augsburg	12	3	4	5	-7	13
14	Darmstadt	12	3	3	6	-8	12
15	Hamburg	10	3	3	4	-8	12
16	Wolfsburg	12	3	2	7	-7	11
17	Werder Bremen	11	3	1	7	-5	10
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	2	2	7	-9	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	11	8	2	1	+11	26
2	RB Leipzig	12	6	3	3	+7	21
3	Dortmund	12	4	4	4	+6	16
4	Hoffenheim	11	3	6	2	+4	15
5	Augsburg	11	4	3	4	+0	15
6	Ein Frankfurt	12	4	2	6	-4	14
7	Leverkusen	10	4	1	5	+0	13
8	FC Koln	12	3	4	5	-1	13
9	Werder Bremen	11	3	3	5	-10	12
10	Wolfsburg	10	3	2	5	-6	11
11	M'gladbach	11	3	2	6	-11	11
12	FC Ingolstadt 04	11	3	1	7	-6	10
13	Mainz	11	3	1	7	-10	10
14	Hertha	11	2	3	6	-8	9
15	Freiburg	11	2	3	6	-9	9
16	Hamburg	12	2	2	8	-16	8
17	Schalke 04	10	1	4	5	-5	7
18	Darmstadt	10	0	0	10	-20	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.