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Premier League

Referee: Kevin Friend

Chelsea

S S S U S

3–1

Full-time

Newcastle

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chelsea Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,5

Scored

2,0

0,7

Conceded

0,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-1,2

This season — Premier League · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 47%

64%

29%

Points per game

2,1

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

50%

43%

Both score Ø 40%

43%

36%

Average goals

2,6

2,3

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

0,8

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

65% Possession 35%

23 Shots 8

9 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

11 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chelsea 3. · Newcastle 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	14	13	1	0	+35	40
2	Man United	14	10	2	2	+24	32
3	Chelsea	14	9	2	3	+14	29
4	Arsenal	14	9	1	4	+12	28
5	Liverpool	14	7	5	2	+10	26
6	Burnley	14	7	4	3	+3	25
7	Tottenham	14	7	3	4	+10	24
8	Watford	14	6	3	5	-1	21
9	Leicester	14	4	5	5	-1	17
10	Brighton	14	4	5	5	-1	17
11	Southampton	14	4	4	6	-3	16
12	Newcastle	14	4	3	7	-6	15
13	Everton	14	4	3	7	-11	15
14	Huddersfield	14	4	3	7	-15	15
15	Bournemouth	14	4	2	8	-4	14
16	Stoke	14	3	4	7	-13	13
17	West Brom	14	2	6	6	-9	12
18	West Ham	14	2	4	8	-18	10
19	Swansea	14	2	3	9	-9	9
20	Crystal Palace	14	2	3	9	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	7	7	0	0	+19	21
2	Arsenal	7	7	0	0	+16	21
3	Man City	7	6	1	0	+21	19
4	Liverpool	7	4	3	0	+11	15
5	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	+4	13
6	Tottenham	7	3	3	1	+4	12
7	Everton	7	4	0	3	+0	12
8	Burnley	7	3	2	2	+2	11
9	Southampton	8	3	2	3	+1	11
10	Huddersfield	7	3	2	2	-2	11
11	Leicester	7	3	1	3	+1	10
12	Brighton	7	2	4	1	+1	10
13	Newcastle	7	3	1	3	-1	10
14	Crystal Palace	7	2	2	3	-4	8
15	Watford	7	2	2	3	-6	8
16	Stoke	7	2	2	3	-6	8
17	Bournemouth	7	2	1	4	+0	7
18	West Brom	7	1	4	2	-4	7
19	West Ham	6	2	1	3	-4	7
20	Swansea	7	1	1	5	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	7	7	0	0	+14	21
2	Chelsea	7	5	1	1	+10	16
3	Burnley	7	4	2	1	+1	14
4	Watford	7	4	1	2	+5	13
5	Tottenham	7	4	0	3	+6	12
6	Man United	7	3	2	2	+5	11
7	Liverpool	7	3	2	2	-1	11
8	Leicester	7	1	4	2	-2	7
9	Brighton	7	2	1	4	-2	7
10	Arsenal	7	2	1	4	-4	7
11	Bournemouth	7	2	1	4	-4	7
12	Swansea	7	1	2	4	-3	5
13	Southampton	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Newcastle	7	1	2	4	-5	5
15	West Brom	7	1	2	4	-5	5
16	Stoke	7	1	2	4	-7	5
17	Huddersfield	7	1	1	5	-13	4
18	Everton	7	0	3	4	-11	3
19	West Ham	8	0	3	5	-14	3
20	Crystal Palace	7	0	1	6	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.