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Championship

Referee: James Linington

Derby

S U S U T

2–0

Full-time

Sheffield Weds

S S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Sheffield Weds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,5

2,2

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,2

This season — Championship · 14/13 matches

Win Ø 34%

21%

46%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 27%

46%

Both score Ø 42%

21%

62%

Average goals

1,3

2,3

Scored

0,5

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

37% Possession 63%

18 Shots 18

6 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 4

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

9 Corners 8

3 Offside 0

3 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 21. · Sheffield Weds 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	14	10	1	3	+19	31
2	Brighton	14	8	4	2	+9	28
3	Huddersfield	13	9	1	3	+5	28
4	Norwich	14	8	3	3	+7	27
5	Bristol City	14	7	2	5	+6	23
6	Birmingham	14	6	5	3	+3	23
7	Brentford	15	6	4	5	+7	22
8	Reading	14	6	4	4	-3	22
9	Sheffield Weds	13	6	3	4	+0	21
10	Preston	14	6	2	6	+1	20
11	Leeds	14	6	2	6	-1	20
12	Barnsley	14	6	1	7	+3	19
13	QPR	15	5	4	6	-5	19
14	Fulham	14	4	6	4	-2	18
15	Burton Albion	14	4	5	5	+0	17
16	Aston Villa	14	3	8	3	+0	17
17	Ipswich	14	4	5	5	-2	17
18	Wolves	14	4	4	6	-1	16
19	Nott'm Forest	14	4	3	7	-3	15
20	Cardiff	14	4	3	7	-9	15
21	Derby	14	3	5	6	-4	14
22	Blackburn	14	3	3	8	-8	12
23	Wigan	14	2	5	7	-3	11
24	Rotherham	14	1	3	10	-19	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Huddersfield	6	6	0	0	+6	18
2	Brighton	7	5	1	1	+8	16
3	Norwich	7	5	1	1	+6	16
4	Bristol City	7	5	1	1	+5	16
5	Newcastle	7	5	0	2	+8	15
6	Sheffield Weds	7	5	0	2	+2	15
7	Brentford	7	4	2	1	+9	14
8	Birmingham	7	4	2	1	+5	14
9	Burton Albion	7	4	1	2	+5	13
10	Nott'm Forest	7	4	1	2	+4	13
11	Preston	7	4	0	3	+5	12
12	Ipswich	7	3	3	1	+4	12
13	Reading	7	3	3	1	+2	12
14	Aston Villa	7	2	5	0	+4	11
15	Leeds	7	3	2	2	+1	11
16	Barnsley	7	3	1	3	+2	10
17	Wigan	7	2	3	2	+2	9
18	QPR	8	2	3	3	-6	9
19	Blackburn	7	2	2	3	-2	8
20	Wolves	7	2	2	3	-2	8
21	Cardiff	7	2	1	4	-5	7
22	Rotherham	7	1	3	3	-2	6
23	Derby	7	1	3	3	-3	6
24	Fulham	7	1	3	3	-5	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Newcastle	7	5	1	1	+11	16
2	Fulham	7	3	3	1	+3	12
3	Brighton	7	3	3	1	+1	12
4	Norwich	7	3	2	2	+1	11
5	QPR	7	3	1	3	+1	10
6	Huddersfield	7	3	1	3	-1	10
7	Reading	7	3	1	3	-5	10
8	Barnsley	7	3	0	4	+1	9
9	Leeds	7	3	0	4	-2	9
10	Birmingham	7	2	3	2	-2	9
11	Wolves	7	2	2	3	+1	8
12	Derby	7	2	2	3	-1	8
13	Brentford	8	2	2	4	-2	8
14	Cardiff	7	2	2	3	-4	8
15	Preston	7	2	2	3	-4	8
16	Bristol City	7	2	1	4	+1	7
17	Sheffield Weds	6	1	3	2	-2	6
18	Aston Villa	7	1	3	3	-4	6
19	Ipswich	7	1	2	4	-6	5
20	Burton Albion	7	0	4	3	-5	4
21	Blackburn	7	1	1	5	-6	4
22	Wigan	7	0	2	5	-5	2
23	Nott'm Forest	7	0	2	5	-7	2
24	Rotherham	7	0	0	7	-17	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.