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Bundesliga

Referee: Marco Fritz

RB Leipzig

U S S S S

3–1

Full-time

Mainz

T U S T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

RB Leipzig Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

This season — Bundesliga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 56%

67%

44%

Points per game

2,3

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

44%

78%

Both score Ø 62%

56%

67%

Average goals

2,6

3,4

Scored

1,9

1,8

Conceded

0,7

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 3–0

49% Possession 51%

15 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

5 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match RB Leipzig 2. · Mainz 10. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	10	7	3	0	+18	24
2	RB Leipzig	9	6	3	0	+11	21
3	Hoffenheim	10	5	5	0	+7	20
4	Hertha	10	6	2	2	+7	20
5	Dortmund	10	5	3	2	+13	18
6	FC Koln	10	5	3	2	+9	18
7	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	3	2	+6	18
8	Leverkusen	10	5	1	4	+1	16
9	Freiburg	10	5	0	5	-3	15
10	Mainz	9	4	2	3	+1	14
11	M'gladbach	10	3	3	4	-5	12
12	Augsburg	10	3	2	5	-4	11
13	Wolfsburg	10	2	3	5	-4	9
14	Schalke 04	9	2	2	5	-1	8
15	Darmstadt	10	2	2	6	-10	8
16	Werder Bremen	9	2	1	6	-13	7
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	10	0	2	8	-14	2
18	Hamburg	10	0	2	8	-19	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Hertha	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Bayern Munich	6	4	2	0	+13	14
3	FC Koln	5	4	1	0	+9	13
4	Freiburg	5	4	0	1	+2	12
5	Dortmund	5	3	2	0	+9	11
6	M'gladbach	5	3	2	0	+6	11
7	Ein Frankfurt	5	3	2	0	+3	11
8	Hoffenheim	5	3	2	0	+3	11
9	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+4	10
10	Leverkusen	5	3	1	1	+2	10
11	Darmstadt	5	2	2	1	+1	8
12	Mainz	4	2	1	1	+2	7
13	Schalke 04	4	2	0	2	+3	6
14	Werder Bremen	5	2	0	3	-2	6
15	Augsburg	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Wolfsburg	5	0	2	3	-6	2
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	5	0	1	4	-7	1
18	Hamburg	5	0	1	4	-11	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+7	11
2	Bayern Munich	4	3	1	0	+5	10
3	Hoffenheim	5	2	3	0	+4	9
4	Dortmund	5	2	1	2	+4	7
5	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	1	2	+3	7
6	Wolfsburg	5	2	1	2	+2	7
7	Augsburg	5	2	1	2	+1	7
8	Mainz	5	2	1	2	-1	7
9	Leverkusen	5	2	0	3	-1	6
10	FC Koln	5	1	2	2	+0	5
11	Hertha	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Freiburg	5	1	0	4	-5	3
13	Schalke 04	5	0	2	3	-4	2
14	FC Ingolstadt 04	5	0	1	4	-7	1
15	Hamburg	5	0	1	4	-8	1
16	Werder Bremen	4	0	1	3	-11	1
17	M'gladbach	5	0	1	4	-11	1
18	Darmstadt	5	0	0	5	-11	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.