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Bundesliga

Referee: Manuel Gräfe

Mainz

S T U S T

2–0

Full-time

FC Ingolstadt 04

T T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz FC Ingolstadt 04

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

1,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,3

This season — Bundesliga · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 19%

38%

Points per game

1,4

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 69%

88%

50%

Both score Ø 69%

75%

63%

Average goals

3,6

3,0

Scored

1,8

0,9

Conceded

1,9

2,1

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

54% Possession 46%

17 Shots 5

8 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 6

5 Corners 0

3 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Mainz 10. · FC Ingolstadt 04 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	8	6	2	0	+16	20
2	RB Leipzig	8	5	3	0	+9	18
3	Hertha	8	5	2	1	+5	17
4	Hoffenheim	8	4	4	0	+6	16
5	FC Koln	8	4	3	1	+7	15
6	Ein Frankfurt	9	4	3	2	+5	15
7	Dortmund	8	4	2	2	+10	14
8	M'gladbach	9	3	3	3	-2	12
9	Freiburg	8	4	0	4	-2	12
10	Mainz	8	3	2	3	-1	11
11	Leverkusen	8	3	1	4	-1	10
12	Augsburg	8	2	2	4	-4	8
13	Darmstadt	8	2	2	4	-7	8
14	Schalke 04	8	2	1	5	-1	7
15	Werder Bremen	8	2	1	5	-11	7
16	Wolfsburg	8	1	3	4	-6	6
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	8	0	2	6	-10	2
18	Hamburg	8	0	2	6	-13	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	1	0	+13	13
2	Hertha	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Freiburg	4	4	0	0	+5	12
4	M'gladbach	5	3	2	0	+6	11
5	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+9	10
6	FC Koln	4	3	1	0	+6	10
7	RB Leipzig	4	3	1	0	+4	10
8	Darmstadt	4	2	2	0	+3	8
9	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	2	0	+2	8
10	Hoffenheim	4	2	2	0	+2	8
11	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+1	7
12	Schalke 04	4	2	0	2	+3	6
13	Werder Bremen	4	2	0	2	+0	6
14	Mainz	3	1	1	1	+0	4
15	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	-3	4
16	Wolfsburg	4	0	2	2	-5	2
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	0	1	3	-5	1
18	Hamburg	4	0	1	3	-8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	RB Leipzig	4	2	2	0	+5	8
2	Hoffenheim	4	2	2	0	+4	8
3	Ein Frankfurt	5	2	1	2	+3	7
4	Bayern Munich	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Mainz	5	2	1	2	-1	7
6	FC Koln	4	1	2	1	+1	5
7	Hertha	4	1	2	1	-1	5
8	Dortmund	4	1	1	2	+1	4
9	Wolfsburg	4	1	1	2	-1	4
10	Augsburg	4	1	1	2	-1	4
11	Leverkusen	4	1	0	3	-2	3
12	Schalke 04	4	0	1	3	-4	1
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	0	1	3	-5	1
14	Hamburg	4	0	1	3	-5	1
15	M'gladbach	4	0	1	3	-8	1
16	Werder Bremen	4	0	1	3	-11	1
17	Freiburg	4	0	0	4	-7	0
18	Darmstadt	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.