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Bundesliga
Referee: Weiner Michael
Hoffenheim
T T U U T
3–3
Full-time
M'gladbach
S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim M'gladbach
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 42%
0%
83%
Points per game
0,5
2,7
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 50%
33%
67%
Average goals
2,0
3,3
Scored
0,7
2,7
Conceded
1,3
0,7
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+2,0
This season — Bundesliga · 13/13 matches
Win Ø 31%
8%
54%
Points per game
0,6
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 66%
54%
77%
Both score Ø 62%
62%
62%
Average goals
2,5
3,4
Scored
0,9
1,9
Conceded
1,5
1,5
Goal diff per game
-0,6
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

31% Possession 69%
18 Shots 16
6 Shots on target 8
6 Blocked shots 4
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
8 Corners 6
2 Offside 1
0 Free kicks against 0
2 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Hoffenheim 18. · M'gladbach 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 13 12 1 0 +35 37
2 Dortmund 13 9 2 2 +18 29
3 Wolfsburg 13 7 3 3 +8 24
4 Hertha 13 7 2 4 +3 23
5 M'gladbach 13 7 1 5 +6 22
6 Leverkusen 13 6 2 5 +0 20
7 Schalke 04 13 6 2 5 -2 20
8 FC Koln 14 5 5 4 -3 20
9 FC Ingolstadt 04 13 5 4 4 +0 19
10 Hamburg 13 5 3 5 -3 18
11 Mainz 13 5 2 6 -1 17
12 Darmstadt 14 3 6 5 -5 15
13 Ein Frankfurt 13 3 5 5 -3 14
14 Werder Bremen 13 4 1 8 -12 13
15 Hannover 13 3 2 8 -11 11
16 Stuttgart 13 3 1 9 -14 10
17 Augsburg 13 2 3 8 -8 9
18 Hoffenheim 13 1 5 7 -8 8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Hoffenheim M'gladbach
5′
F. Johnson 0–1
M. Dahoud
Nadiem Amiri 🟨
8′
1–1 S. Zuber
N. Amiri
11′
25′
🟨 Mahmoud Dahoud
2–1 E. Polanski
N. Amiri
34′
Half-time 3–1
3–1 N. Amiri
47′
49′
🔁 T. Hazard
↦ M. Dahoud
56′
J. Drmic 3–2
L. Stindl
Jin-Su Kim 🟨
59′
Á. Szalai 🔁
↦ K. Volland
80′
80′
🔁 N. Elvedi
↦ J. Korb
83′
🔁 B. Hrgota
↦ J. Drmic
J. Schmid 🔁
↦ S. Zuber
86′
87′
F. Johnson 3–3
Raffael
Full-time 3–3

Line-ups

Hoffenheim

1 O. Baumann G
12 T. Strobl M
20 Jin-Su Kim D
5 F. Schär D
25 N. Süle D
8 E. Polanski M
16 P. Schwegler M
14 T. Elyounoussi F
17 S. Zuber M
18 N. Amiri M
31 K. Volland F
Bench (7)
28 Á. Szalai
10 J. Schmid
3 P. Kaderábek
4 E. Bičakčić
6 S. Rudy
9 E. Vargas
13 J. Grahl

M'gladbach

1 Y. Sommer G
17 O. Wendt D
19 F. Johnson M
3 A. Christensen D
6 H. Nordtveit D
13 L. Stindl F
34 G. Xhaka M
27 J. Korb M
8 M. Dahoud M
11 Raffael F
9 J. Drmic F
Bench (7)
10 T. Hazard
30 N. Elvedi
31 B. Hrgota
4 R. Brouwers
18 M. Schulz
21 T. Sippel
24 T. Jantschke

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.