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Bundesliga

Referee: Jochen Drees

Bayern Munich

U U S S S

4–1

Full-time

Freiburg

T S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bayern Munich Freiburg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,2

2,5

Scored

3,0

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+1,8

-0,5

This season — Bundesliga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 58%

73%

42%

Points per game

2,4

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

58%

67%

Both score Ø 53%

42%

64%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

2,6

1,2

Conceded

0,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

+1,9

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

65% Possession 35%

33 Shots 19

11 Shots on target 8

13 Blocked shots 6

7 Goalkeeper saves 7

15 Corners 7

2 Offside 4

10 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bayern Munich 1. · Freiburg 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	33	24	7	2	+64	79
2	RB Leipzig	33	20	6	7	+27	66
3	Dortmund	33	17	10	6	+31	61
4	Hoffenheim	33	16	13	4	+27	61
5	Hertha	33	15	4	14	+0	49
6	Freiburg	33	14	6	13	-15	48
7	FC Koln	33	11	13	9	+7	46
8	Werder Bremen	33	13	6	14	-2	45
9	M'gladbach	33	12	8	13	-4	44
10	Schalke 04	33	11	9	13	+5	42
11	Ein Frankfurt	33	11	8	14	-7	41
12	Leverkusen	33	10	8	15	-6	38
13	Mainz	33	10	7	16	-9	37
14	Augsburg	33	9	10	14	-16	37
15	Wolfsburg	33	10	7	16	-17	37
16	Hamburg	33	9	8	16	-29	35
17	FC Ingolstadt 04	33	8	7	18	-21	31
18	Darmstadt	33	7	3	23	-35	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	12	4	0	+43	40
2	Dortmund	16	12	4	0	+28	40
3	Hoffenheim	16	11	5	0	+21	38
4	RB Leipzig	17	12	2	3	+19	38
5	Hertha	16	12	1	3	+13	37
6	Freiburg	17	10	2	5	-1	32
7	FC Koln	16	8	6	2	+10	30
8	Schalke 04	17	8	5	4	+14	29
9	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	6	3	+6	27
10	M'gladbach	16	7	4	5	+8	25
11	Mainz	17	7	4	6	+4	25
12	Werder Bremen	17	8	1	8	+4	25
13	Hamburg	16	7	4	5	-5	25
14	Leverkusen	17	5	6	6	-1	21
15	Augsburg	17	5	6	6	-3	21
16	Darmstadt	17	6	3	8	-7	21
17	Wolfsburg	17	5	3	9	-10	18
18	FC Ingolstadt 04	16	4	4	8	-9	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	17	12	3	2	+21	39
2	RB Leipzig	16	8	4	4	+8	28
3	Hoffenheim	17	5	8	4	+6	23
4	Dortmund	17	5	6	6	+3	21
5	Werder Bremen	16	5	5	6	-6	20
6	Wolfsburg	16	5	4	7	-7	19
7	M'gladbach	17	5	4	8	-12	19
8	Leverkusen	16	5	2	9	-5	17
9	FC Koln	17	3	7	7	-3	16
10	Augsburg	16	4	4	8	-13	16
11	Freiburg	16	4	4	8	-14	16
12	FC Ingolstadt 04	17	4	3	10	-12	15
13	Ein Frankfurt	17	4	2	11	-13	14
14	Schalke 04	16	3	4	9	-9	13
15	Hertha	17	3	3	11	-13	12
16	Mainz	16	3	3	10	-13	12
17	Hamburg	17	2	4	11	-24	10
18	Darmstadt	16	1	0	15	-28	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.