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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Alexandre Da Silva Esteves

Nacional

T T T U T

1–2

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 17%

17%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

0,5

0,2

Conceded

1,8

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 20%

12%

27%

Points per game

0,6

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 38%

39%

36%

Both score Ø 38%

36%

39%

Average goals

2,3

2,0

Scored

0,6

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,1

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

48% Possession 52%

9 Shots 13

2 Shots on target 6

1 Blocked shots 0

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 10

0 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 18. · Vitoria Setubal 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	33	25	6	2	+54	81
2	Porto	33	22	10	1	+54	76
3	Sp Lisbon	33	20	7	6	+29	67
4	Guimaraes	33	18	8	7	+12	62
5	Sp Braga	33	15	9	9	+17	54
6	Maritimo	33	13	10	10	+2	49
7	Rio Ave	33	13	7	13	+0	46
8	Feirense	33	13	6	14	-15	45
9	Boavista	33	10	12	11	-3	42
10	Chaves	33	8	14	11	-4	38
11	Belenenses	33	9	9	15	-16	36
12	Estoril	33	9	8	16	-8	35
13	Vitoria Setubal	33	9	8	16	-10	35
14	Pacos Ferreira	33	8	11	14	-13	35
15	Arouca	33	9	5	19	-22	32
16	Moreirense	33	7	9	17	-17	30
17	Tondela	33	7	8	18	-25	29
18	Nacional	33	4	9	20	-35	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	14	3	0	+40	45
2	Porto	17	14	3	0	+35	45
3	Sp Lisbon	16	11	3	2	+20	36
4	Maritimo	17	10	5	2	+13	35
5	Sp Braga	17	10	4	3	+19	34
6	Guimaraes	16	8	5	3	+8	29
7	Chaves	17	6	8	3	+4	26
8	Pacos Ferreira	16	6	7	3	+4	25
9	Rio Ave	16	7	4	5	+3	25
10	Vitoria Setubal	17	7	3	7	+1	24
11	Feirense	17	7	2	8	-8	23
12	Tondela	16	6	3	7	-3	21
13	Boavista	16	5	5	6	+3	20
14	Arouca	17	6	2	9	-5	20
15	Belenenses	17	4	6	7	-5	18
16	Estoril	16	5	2	9	-5	17
17	Moreirense	16	3	7	6	-4	16
18	Nacional	16	2	6	8	-11	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	11	3	2	+14	36
2	Guimaraes	17	10	3	4	+4	33
3	Porto	16	8	7	1	+19	31
4	Sp Lisbon	17	9	4	4	+9	31
5	Boavista	17	5	7	5	-6	22
6	Feirense	16	6	4	6	-7	22
7	Rio Ave	17	6	3	8	-3	21
8	Sp Braga	16	5	5	6	-2	20
9	Estoril	17	4	6	7	-3	18
10	Belenenses	16	5	3	8	-11	18
11	Maritimo	16	3	5	8	-11	14
12	Moreirense	17	4	2	11	-13	14
13	Chaves	16	2	6	8	-8	12
14	Arouca	16	3	3	10	-17	12
15	Vitoria Setubal	16	2	5	9	-11	11
16	Pacos Ferreira	17	2	4	11	-17	10
17	Nacional	17	2	3	12	-24	9
18	Tondela	17	1	5	11	-22	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.