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Serie A

Referee: Nicola Rizzoli

Napoli

S U S S S

4–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 83%

83%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

3,3

4,5

Scored

2,8

2,2

Conceded

0,5

2,3

Goal diff per game

+2,3

-0,2

This season — Serie A · 36/36 matches

Win Ø 56%

67%

44%

Points per game

2,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

69%

64%

Both score Ø 60%

61%

58%

Average goals

3,4

3,1

Scored

2,4

1,7

Conceded

1,0

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,4

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

49% Possession 51%

20 Shots 15

9 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Napoli 3. · Fiorentina 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	36	27	4	5	+46	85
2	Roma	37	27	3	7	+51	84
3	Napoli	36	24	8	4	+50	80
4	Lazio	36	21	7	8	+27	70
5	Atalanta	36	19	9	8	+19	66
6	Milan	36	17	9	10	+10	60
7	Fiorentina	36	16	11	9	+9	59
8	Inter	36	17	5	14	+18	56
9	Torino	36	12	14	10	+4	50
10	Sampdoria	36	12	11	13	-4	47
11	Udinese	36	12	8	16	-6	44
12	Cagliari	36	13	5	18	-18	44
13	Sassuolo	36	12	7	17	-7	43
14	Chievo	37	12	7	18	-17	43
15	Bologna	36	11	8	17	-14	41
16	Genoa	36	8	9	19	-26	33
17	Empoli	36	8	8	20	-30	32
18	Crotone	36	8	7	21	-23	31
19	Palermo	36	5	8	23	-43	23
20	Pescara	36	2	8	26	-46	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Juventus	18	17	1	0	+36	52
2	Roma	18	15	1	2	+31	46
3	Napoli	18	12	4	2	+22	40
4	Lazio	18	12	2	4	+19	38
5	Atalanta	18	11	4	3	+12	37
6	Fiorentina	18	10	7	1	+11	37
7	Milan	18	11	2	5	+9	35
8	Inter	18	10	3	5	+19	33
9	Cagliari	18	10	3	5	+3	33
10	Torino	18	8	8	2	+10	32
11	Sampdoria	18	8	6	4	+7	30
12	Udinese	18	8	4	6	+7	28
13	Bologna	18	8	2	8	+0	26
14	Chievo	19	6	5	8	-5	23
15	Genoa	18	5	7	6	-1	22
16	Sassuolo	18	6	3	9	-5	21
17	Crotone	18	5	4	9	-6	19
18	Empoli	18	5	4	9	-12	19
19	Palermo	18	3	3	12	-18	12
20	Pescara	18	1	5	12	-21	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Napoli	18	12	4	2	+28	40
2	Roma	19	12	2	5	+20	38
3	Juventus	18	10	3	5	+10	33
4	Lazio	18	9	5	4	+8	32
5	Atalanta	18	8	5	5	+7	29
6	Milan	18	6	7	5	+1	25
7	Inter	18	7	2	9	-1	23
8	Fiorentina	18	6	4	8	-2	22
9	Sassuolo	18	6	4	8	-2	22
10	Chievo	18	6	2	10	-12	20
11	Torino	18	4	6	8	-6	18
12	Sampdoria	18	4	5	9	-11	17
13	Udinese	18	4	4	10	-13	16
14	Bologna	18	3	6	9	-14	15
15	Empoli	18	3	4	11	-18	13
16	Crotone	18	3	3	12	-17	12
17	Cagliari	18	3	2	13	-21	11
18	Palermo	18	2	5	11	-25	11
19	Genoa	18	3	2	13	-25	11
20	Pescara	18	1	3	14	-25	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.