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Bundesliga
Referee: Daniel Siebert
Freiburg
T U T U U
3–2
Full-time
Hoffenheim
U S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Hoffenheim
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,8
2,7
Scored
0,3
1,8
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+1,0
This season — Bundesliga · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,7
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,8
2,7
Scored
0,3
1,8
Conceded
1,5
0,8
Goal diff per game
-1,2
+1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

42% Possession 58%
15 Shots 15
6 Shots on target 6
4 Blocked shots 5
5 Goalkeeper saves 3
9 Corners 7
3 Offside 1
13 Free kicks against 17
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Freiburg 17. · Hoffenheim 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 7 6 1 0 +19 19
2 Hoffenheim 6 4 2 0 +6 14
3 Bayern Munich 6 4 1 1 +9 13
4 Hannover 7 3 3 1 +3 12
5 Augsburg 7 3 2 2 +3 11
6 M'gladbach 7 3 2 2 -2 11
7 RB Leipzig 6 3 1 2 +3 10
8 Ein Frankfurt 7 3 1 3 +0 10
9 Schalke 04 7 3 1 3 -1 10
10 Leverkusen 7 2 2 3 +2 8
11 Hertha 6 2 2 2 +0 8
12 Wolfsburg 7 1 4 2 -3 7
13 Mainz 7 2 1 4 -4 7
14 Stuttgart 7 2 1 4 -5 7
15 Hamburg 7 2 1 4 -7 7
16 Werder Bremen 7 0 4 3 -4 4
17 Freiburg 6 0 4 2 -7 4
18 FC Koln 6 0 1 5 -12 1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Freiburg Hoffenheim
14′
R. Hack 0–1
S. Wagner
1–1 F. Niederlechner
J. Haberer
15′
2–1 C. Söyüncü
N. Höfler
18′
Pascal Stenzel 🟨
28′
28′
🟨 Sandro Wagner
33′
🟨 Benjamin Hübner
42′
🔁 P. Ochs
↦ R. Hack
Half-time 2–1
46′
🔁 F. Grillitsch
↦ L. Rupp
Y. Ravet 🔁
↦ M. Terrazzino
52′
65′
🔁 N. Schulz
↦ S. Zuber
Janik Haberer 🟨
68′
N. Petersen 🔁
↦ M. Frantz
69′
82′
🟨 Dennis Geiger
F. Kath 🔁
↦ F. Niederlechner
84′
3–1 P. Stenzel
N. Petersen
87′
91′
J. Schuster 4–1
own goal
Full-time 4–1

Line-ups

Freiburg

3-4-3
1 A. Schwolow G
30 C. Günter D
3 P. Lienhart D
15 P. Stenzel D
4 C. Söyüncü D
23 J. Schuster D
8 M. Frantz M
27 N. Höfler M
19 J. Haberer M
13 M. Terrazzino M
7 F. Niederlechner F
Bench (7)
16 Y. Ravet
18 N. Petersen
38 F. Kath
2 A. Ignjovski
14 R. Kent
25 R. Koch
44 R. Gikiewicz

Coach: C. Streich

Hoffenheim

4-3-3
1 O. Baumann G
21 B. Hübner D
3 P. Kadeřábek M
6 H. Nordtveit D
17 S. Zuber M
22 K. Vogt D
7 L. Rupp M
32 D. Geiger M
14 S. Wagner F
27 A. Kramarić F
37 R. Hack F
Bench (7)
30 P. Ochs
11 F. Grillitsch
16 N. Schulz
8 E. Polanski
31 F. Passlack
33 A. Stolz
38 S. Posch

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Daniel Siebert · 86 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
20,2 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.