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Bundesliga
Referee: Felix Zwayer
Stuttgart
U T U S S
2–0
Full-time
Hoffenheim
S U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stuttgart Hoffenheim
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
33%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
2,2
4,5
Scored
1,2
3,3
Conceded
1,0
1,2
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+2,2
This season — Bundesliga · 32/32 matches
Win Ø 43%
41%
44%
Points per game
1,4
1,6
Over 2.5 Ø 44%
31%
56%
Both score Ø 51%
38%
63%
Average goals
2,0
3,4
Scored
0,9
2,0
Conceded
1,1
1,4
Goal diff per game
-0,2
+0,6
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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

35% Possession 65%
6 Shots 23
3 Shots on target 7
0 Blocked shots 9
7 Goalkeeper saves 1
1 Corners 9
1 Offside 2
15 Free kicks against 10
6 Yellow cards 1
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Stuttgart 8. · Hoffenheim 4.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Bayern Munich 32 26 3 3 +65 81
2 Schalke 04 32 16 9 7 +14 57
3 Dortmund 32 15 10 7 +20 55
4 Hoffenheim 32 14 10 8 +18 52
5 Leverkusen 32 14 9 9 +13 51
6 RB Leipzig 32 13 8 11 -3 47
7 Ein Frankfurt 32 13 7 12 -2 46
8 Stuttgart 32 13 6 13 -5 45
9 M'gladbach 32 12 8 12 -6 44
10 Hertha 32 10 13 9 +3 43
11 Augsburg 32 10 11 11 +0 41
12 Werder Bremen 32 9 11 12 -4 38
13 Hannover 32 9 9 14 -11 36
14 Mainz 32 8 9 15 -14 33
15 Freiburg 32 7 12 13 -24 33
16 Wolfsburg 32 5 15 12 -12 30
17 Hamburg 32 7 7 18 -22 28
18 FC Koln 32 5 7 20 -30 22

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Stuttgart Hoffenheim
Santiago Ascacibar 🟨
2′
Timo Baumgartl 🟨
8′
22′
🔁 R. Zulj
↦ L. Rupp
1–0 M. Gómez
25′
Half-time 1–0
M. Kamiński 🔁
↦ H. Badstuber
46′
Christian Gentner 🟨
50′
50′
🔁 Á. Szalai
↦ H. Nordtveit
51′
🟨 Kevin Akpoguma
A. Donis 🔁
↦ D. Ginczek
61′
Santiago Ascacibar 🟨
65′
Santiago Ascacibar 🟥
65′
67′
🔁 R. Hack
↦ S. Zuber
2–0 M. Gómez
E. Thommy
74′
O. Mangala 🔁
↦ E. Thommy
76′
Ron-Robert Zieler 🟨
79′
Dennis Aogo 🟨
80′
Full-time 2–0

Line-ups

Stuttgart

4-4-2
16 R. Zieler G
2 E. Insúa D
3 D. Aogo M
28 H. Badstuber D
5 T. Baumgartl D
21 B. Pavard D
20 C. Gentner M
17 E. Thommy M
6 S. Ascacíbar M
27 M. Gómez F
33 D. Ginczek F
Bench (7)
35 M. Kamiński
14 A. Donis
23 O. Mangala
13 J. Grahl
19 C. Akolo
31 B. Özcan
34 Jacob Bruun Larsen

Coach: T. Korkut

Hoffenheim

3-1-4-2
1 O. Baumann G
6 H. Nordtveit D
22 K. Vogt D
25 K. Akpoguma D
17 S. Zuber M
7 L. Rupp M
16 N. Schulz M
11 F. Grillitsch M
18 N. Amiri M
27 A. Kramarić F
19 M. Uth F
Bench (7)
20 R. Zulj
28 Á. Szalai
37 R. Hack
4 E. Bičakčić
8 E. Polanski
31 F. Passlack
36 G. Kobel

Coach: J. Nagelsmann

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
U2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

Felix Zwayer · 92 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,3 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.