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Bundesliga
Referee: Wolfgang Stark
Werder Bremen
U S T T T
1–2
Full-time
Mainz
S U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Werder Bremen Mainz
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,2
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
50%
67%
Average goals
3,8
3,2
Scored
1,5
1,8
Conceded
2,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,5
This season — Bundesliga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
0%
33%
Points per game
0,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 84%
67%
100%
Average goals
4,7
5,0
Scored
0,7
2,7
Conceded
4,0
2,3
Goal diff per game
-3,3
+0,3
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%
13 Shots 13
7 Shots on target 6
1 Blocked shots 1
4 Goalkeeper saves 6
3 Corners 14
2 Offside 4
15 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Werder Bremen 18. · Mainz 10.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Dortmund 4 3 0 1 +10 9
2 Bayern Munich 3 3 0 0 +10 9
3 Hertha 3 3 0 0 +5 9
4 Ein Frankfurt 4 3 0 1 +3 9
5 RB Leipzig 3 2 1 0 +5 7
6 FC Koln 3 2 1 0 +5 7
7 M'gladbach 3 2 0 1 +2 6
8 Freiburg 4 2 0 2 -1 6
9 Wolfsburg 4 1 2 1 -2 5
10 Mainz 3 1 1 1 +1 4
11 Hoffenheim 4 0 4 0 +0 4
12 Darmstadt 4 1 1 2 -7 4
13 Leverkusen 3 1 0 2 +0 3
14 Augsburg 3 1 0 2 -3 3
15 FC Ingolstadt 04 4 0 1 3 -6 1
16 Hamburg 4 0 1 3 -7 1
17 Schalke 04 3 0 0 3 -5 0
18 Werder Bremen 3 0 0 3 -10 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Werder Bremen Mainz
1–0 I. Hajrović
T. Gebre Selassie
12′
Ousman Manneh 🟨
24′
Half-time 1–0
L. Thy 🔁
↦ O. Manneh
55′
64′
🔁 P. De Blasis
↦ L. Öztunali
U. Garcia 🔁
↦ I. Hajrović
70′
71′
🟨 Fabian Frei
75′
🔁 Y. Muto
↦ N. Bungert
L. Fröde 🔁
↦ Z. Junuzović
79′
82′
🔁 G. Holtmann
↦ F. Frei
87′
Y. Mallı 1–1
J. Córdoba
Florian Grillitsch 🟨
88′
90′
🟨 Pablo De Blasis
92′
P. De Blasis 1–2
G. Holtmann
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Werder Bremen

4-2-3-1
33 J. Drobný G
18 N. Moisander D
23 T. Gebre Selassie D
26 L. Sané D
4 R. Bauer D
8 C. Fritz M
16 Z. Junuzović M
15 I. Hajrović M
27 F. Grillitsch M
29 S. Gnabry M
47 O. Manneh F
Bench (7)
11 L. Thy
20 U. Garcia
39 L. Fröde
37 J. Sternberg
35 M. Eggestein
42 F. Wiedwald
7 F. Kainz

Coach: A. Nouri

Mainz

4-2-3-1
1 J. Lössl G
26 N. Bungert D
18 D. Brosinski D
3 L. Balogun D
2 G. Donati D
24 G. Bussmann D
20 F. Frei M
27 C. Clemens M
10 Y. Mallı M
8 L. Öztunali F
15 J. Córdoba F
Bench (7)
32 P. De Blasis
9 Y. Muto
38 G. Holtmann
42 A. Hack
33 J. Huth
30 B. Halimi
16 S. Bell

Coach: M. Schmidt

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Wolfgang Stark · 35 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,3 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
13,3 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.