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Bundesliga

Referee: Bastian Dankert

Mainz

T U U S T

3–0

Full-time

RB Leipzig

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz RB Leipzig

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

1,7

3,7

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,2

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

This season — Bundesliga · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 33%

23%

42%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

39%

58%

Both score Ø 58%

48%

68%

Average goals

2,6

3,0

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,6

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

38% Possession 62%

16 Shots 6

9 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 1

0 Goalkeeper saves 6

7 Corners 8

2 Offside 1

24 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Mainz 16. · RB Leipzig 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	32	26	3	3	+65	81
2	Schalke 04	32	16	9	7	+14	57
3	Dortmund	31	15	9	7	+20	54
4	Hoffenheim	32	14	10	8	+18	52
5	Leverkusen	32	14	9	9	+13	51
6	RB Leipzig	31	13	8	10	+0	47
7	Ein Frankfurt	32	13	7	12	-2	46
8	Stuttgart	32	13	6	13	-5	45
9	M'gladbach	32	12	8	12	-6	44
10	Hertha	32	10	13	9	+3	43
11	Augsburg	32	10	11	11	+0	41
12	Werder Bremen	31	9	10	12	-4	37
13	Hannover	32	9	9	14	-11	36
14	Freiburg	32	7	12	13	-24	33
15	Wolfsburg	32	5	15	12	-12	30
16	Mainz	31	7	9	15	-17	30
17	Hamburg	32	7	7	18	-22	28
18	FC Koln	32	5	7	20	-30	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	14	2	0	+44	44
2	Hoffenheim	16	10	4	2	+20	34
3	Schalke 04	16	9	5	2	+11	32
4	Dortmund	16	9	4	3	+20	31
5	Stuttgart	16	9	4	3	+7	31
6	M'gladbach	16	8	4	4	+6	28
7	RB Leipzig	16	8	4	4	+5	28
8	Leverkusen	16	7	5	4	+9	26
9	Ein Frankfurt	16	7	4	5	+4	25
10	Hannover	16	7	3	6	+1	24
11	Freiburg	16	6	6	4	-2	24
12	Werder Bremen	15	6	5	4	+3	23
13	Augsburg	16	6	4	6	+1	22
14	Hertha	16	5	7	4	+0	22
15	Mainz	15	6	3	6	-1	21
16	Hamburg	16	5	4	7	-3	19
17	Wolfsburg	16	2	8	6	-5	14
18	FC Koln	16	3	5	8	-8	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	16	12	1	3	+21	37
2	Leverkusen	16	7	4	5	+4	25
3	Schalke 04	16	7	4	5	+3	25
4	Dortmund	15	6	5	4	+0	23
5	Hertha	16	5	6	5	+3	21
6	Ein Frankfurt	16	6	3	7	-6	21
7	Augsburg	16	4	7	5	-1	19
8	RB Leipzig	15	5	4	6	-5	19
9	Hoffenheim	16	4	6	6	-2	18
10	Wolfsburg	16	3	7	6	-7	16
11	M'gladbach	16	4	4	8	-12	16
12	Werder Bremen	16	3	5	8	-7	14
13	Stuttgart	16	4	2	10	-12	14
14	Hannover	16	2	6	8	-12	12
15	Mainz	16	1	6	9	-16	9
16	Hamburg	16	2	3	11	-19	9
17	Freiburg	16	1	6	9	-22	9
18	FC Koln	16	2	2	12	-22	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.