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Bundesliga

Referee: Robert Hartmann

Mainz

S T T S T

1–3

Full-time

Werder Bremen

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Mainz Werder Bremen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

1,2

0,7

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 33%

44%

22%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 62%

67%

56%

Both score Ø 44%

44%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,3

0,8

Conceded

1,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–3

60% Possession 40%

16 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 8

6 Blocked shots 0

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Mainz 12. · Werder Bremen 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	9	9	0	0	+25	27
2	Dortmund	9	6	2	1	+13	20
3	Schalke 04	9	6	1	2	+3	19
4	Wolfsburg	9	4	3	2	+2	15
5	Hertha	9	4	2	3	+2	14
6	FC Koln	9	4	2	3	+0	14
7	Leverkusen	9	4	2	3	-1	14
8	FC Ingolstadt 04	9	4	2	3	-1	14
9	Hamburg	10	4	2	4	-4	14
10	Darmstadt	9	3	4	2	+0	13
11	M'gladbach	9	4	0	5	+0	12
12	Mainz	9	4	0	5	-1	12
13	Ein Frankfurt	9	2	3	4	-2	9
14	Hannover	9	2	2	5	-8	8
15	Stuttgart	9	2	1	6	-7	7
16	Werder Bremen	9	2	1	6	-7	7
17	Hoffenheim	10	1	3	6	-7	6
18	Augsburg	9	1	2	6	-7	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	5	0	0	+17	15
2	Wolfsburg	5	4	1	0	+8	13
3	Dortmund	4	3	1	0	+9	10
4	Hertha	4	3	1	0	+6	10
5	Schalke 04	5	3	1	1	+1	10
6	FC Koln	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	M'gladbach	4	2	0	2	+0	6
9	Mainz	5	2	0	3	-1	6
10	Ein Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Hamburg	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Darmstadt	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	FC Ingolstadt 04	4	1	1	2	-3	4
14	Hannover	4	1	0	3	-4	3
15	Augsburg	5	1	0	4	-4	3
16	Stuttgart	5	1	0	4	-7	3
17	Werder Bremen	5	1	0	4	-7	3
18	Hoffenheim	5	0	2	3	-4	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	4	4	0	0	+8	12
2	Dortmund	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	FC Ingolstadt 04	5	3	1	1	+2	10
4	Schalke 04	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Hamburg	6	3	0	3	-4	9
6	Darmstadt	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Leverkusen	5	2	1	2	-2	7
8	M'gladbach	5	2	0	3	+0	6
9	Mainz	4	2	0	2	+0	6
10	FC Koln	4	2	0	2	-1	6
11	Hannover	5	1	2	2	-4	5
12	Stuttgart	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Werder Bremen	4	1	1	2	+0	4
14	Ein Frankfurt	5	1	1	3	-2	4
15	Hoffenheim	5	1	1	3	-3	4
16	Hertha	5	1	1	3	-4	4
17	Augsburg	4	0	2	2	-3	2
18	Wolfsburg	4	0	2	2	-6	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.