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Bundesliga

Referee: Sascha Stegemann

Freiburg

T U U S U

1–3

Full-time

Mainz

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Freiburg Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

1,8

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

1,2

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,8

This season — Bundesliga · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 30%

30%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

50%

40%

Both score Ø 55%

70%

40%

Average goals

3,0

1,8

Scored

1,4

0,7

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

57% Possession 43%

15 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 9

2 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 4

2 Offside 0

20 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Freiburg 10. · Mainz 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Dortmund	10	7	3	0	+20	24
2	M'gladbach	10	6	2	2	+11	20
3	Bayern Munich	10	6	2	2	+7	20
4	RB Leipzig	10	5	4	1	+10	19
5	Ein Frankfurt	10	5	2	3	+10	17
6	Werder Bremen	10	5	2	3	+2	17
7	Hoffenheim	10	5	1	4	+8	16
8	Hertha	10	4	4	2	+2	16
9	Augsburg	10	3	4	3	+2	13
10	Freiburg	10	3	4	3	-2	13
11	Wolfsburg	11	3	3	5	-2	12
12	Mainz	10	3	3	4	-4	12
13	Leverkusen	10	3	2	5	-5	11
14	Schalke 04	10	3	1	6	-4	10
15	Nurnberg	10	2	4	4	-11	10
16	Hannover	11	2	3	6	-8	9
17	Stuttgart	10	1	2	7	-18	5
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	10	1	2	7	-18	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	M'gladbach	5	5	0	0	+12	15
2	Dortmund	5	4	1	0	+13	13
3	RB Leipzig	5	3	2	0	+9	11
4	Mainz	6	3	2	1	+2	11
5	Hertha	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Nurnberg	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	Bayern Munich	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Freiburg	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Werder Bremen	5	2	2	1	+0	8
10	Ein Frankfurt	4	2	1	1	+8	7
11	Hoffenheim	5	2	1	2	+4	7
12	Hannover	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Augsburg	5	1	3	1	+2	6
14	Schalke 04	5	2	0	3	-3	6
15	Wolfsburg	6	1	2	3	-4	5
16	Leverkusen	5	1	1	3	-6	4
17	Stuttgart	5	1	1	3	-9	4
18	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	1	0	4	-6	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	5	4	0	1	+6	12
2	Dortmund	5	3	2	0	+7	11
3	Ein Frankfurt	6	3	1	2	+2	10
4	Hoffenheim	5	3	0	2	+4	9
5	Werder Bremen	5	3	0	2	+2	9
6	RB Leipzig	5	2	2	1	+1	8
7	Wolfsburg	5	2	1	2	+2	7
8	Leverkusen	5	2	1	2	+1	7
9	Augsburg	5	2	1	2	+0	7
10	Hertha	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	M'gladbach	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Freiburg	5	1	2	2	-3	5
13	Schalke 04	5	1	1	3	-1	4
14	Hannover	6	0	2	4	-8	2
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	5	0	2	3	-12	2
16	Nurnberg	5	0	2	3	-14	2
17	Mainz	4	0	1	3	-6	1
18	Stuttgart	5	0	1	4	-9	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.