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Serie A
Referee: Daniele Doveri
Spal
T T S T T
2–2
Full-time
Cagliari
T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Spal Cagliari
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
17%
33%
Points per game
0,5
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
67%
33%
Both score Ø 50%
50%
50%
Average goals
3,0
2,2
Scored
0,8
1,0
Conceded
2,2
1,2
Goal diff per game
-1,3
-0,2
This season — Serie A · 11/11 matches
Win Ø 32%
36%
27%
Points per game
1,1
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 36%
45%
27%
Both score Ø 36%
27%
45%
Average goals
2,4
2,2
Scored
0,8
0,9
Conceded
1,5
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%
11 Shots 13
3 Shots on target 3
3 Blocked shots 3
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
1 Corners 6
1 Offside 3
13 Free kicks against 15
2 Yellow cards 4
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Spal 15. · Cagliari 14.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Juventus 11 10 1 0 +16 31
2 Inter 11 8 1 2 +15 25
3 Napoli 11 8 1 2 +12 25
4 Milan 11 6 3 2 +7 21
5 Lazio 11 7 0 4 +4 21
6 Sassuolo 11 5 3 3 +3 18
7 Fiorentina 12 4 5 3 +8 17
8 Torino 12 4 5 3 +2 17
9 Parma 12 5 2 5 -3 17
10 Roma 11 4 4 3 +4 16
11 Atalanta 11 4 3 4 +6 15
12 Sampdoria 11 4 3 4 +4 15
13 Genoa 11 4 2 5 -8 14
14 Cagliari 11 3 4 4 -4 13
15 Spal 11 4 0 7 -8 12
16 Udinese 11 2 3 6 -6 9
17 Bologna 11 2 3 6 -7 9
18 Frosinone 12 1 4 7 -15 7
19 Empoli 11 1 3 7 -10 6
20 Chievo 11 0 2 9 -20 2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Spal Cagliari
1–0 A. Petagna
M. Lazzari
3′
8′
🟨 Nicolò Barella
17′
🟨 Lucas Castro
Mirko Valdifiori 🟨
34′
Felipe 🟨
43′
Half-time 1–0
J. Kurtič 🔁
↦ M. Valdifiori
54′
L. Šimić 🔁
↦ Felipe
59′
66′
🔁 M. Sau
↦ F. Bradarić
K. Bonifazi 🔁
↦ F. Vicari
69′
2–0 M. Antenucci
M. Lazzari
71′
73′
L. Pavoletti 2–1
D. Srna
76′
A. Ioniţă 2–2
S. Padoin
88′
🔁 P. Faragò
↦ João Pedro
90′
🟨 Artur Ioniță
90′
🟨 Marco Sau
92′
🔁 D. Dessena
↦ L. Castro
Full-time 2–2

Line-ups

Spal

3-5-2
1 A. Gomis G
27 Felipe D
4 T. Cionek D
23 F. Vicari D
93 M. Fares D
6 S. Missiroli M
28 P. Schiattarella M
16 M. Valdifiori M
29 M. Lazzari M
7 M. Antenucci F
37 A. Petagna F
Bench (12)
19 J. Kurtič
5 L. Šimić
14 K. Bonifazi
3 J. Djourou
10 S. Floccari
22 D. Thiam
24 L. Dickmann
32 V. Savić
33 F. Costa
43 A. Paloschi
77 F. Viviani
97 M. Vitale

Coach: L. Semplici

Cagliari

4-3-1-2
28 A. Cragno G
33 D. Srna D
23 L. Ceppitelli D
56 F. Romagna D
20 S. Padoin M
21 A. Ioniţă M
29 L. Castro M
10 João Pedro M
6 F. Bradarić M
18 N. Barella M
30 L. Pavoletti F
Bench (10)
25 M. Sau
24 P. Faragò
4 D. Dessena
1 Rafael
2 M. Pajač
3 M. Andreolli
8 L. Cigarini
9 A. Cerri
16 S. Aresti
19 F. Pisacane

Coach: R. Maran

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Daniele Doveri · 82 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
21,4 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,23 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.