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Championship

Referee: Andy Davies

Derby

U U S U T

4–0

Full-time

Bolton

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Bolton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

3,3

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

1,3

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,0

This season — Championship · 37/41 matches

Win Ø 32%

43%

20%

Points per game

1,6

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

46%

41%

Both score Ø 52%

62%

41%

Average goals

2,5

2,4

Scored

1,5

0,7

Conceded

1,1

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

69% Possession 31%

20 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 2

6 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

10 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

14 Free kicks against 7

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 8. · Bolton 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	41	25	10	6	+34	85
2	Sheffield United	41	23	9	9	+30	78
3	Leeds	39	22	7	10	+21	73
4	West Brom	39	19	9	11	+20	66
5	Bristol City	40	18	11	11	+10	65
6	Aston Villa	38	16	14	8	+16	62
7	Middlesbrough	41	16	13	12	+7	61
8	Derby	37	16	12	9	+14	60
9	Hull	41	17	9	15	+3	60
10	Sheffield Weds	41	15	14	12	-2	59
11	Nott'm Forest	41	14	15	12	+5	57
12	Preston	41	15	12	14	+4	57
13	Swansea	40	16	8	16	+5	56
14	Brentford	41	14	12	15	+9	54
15	Birmingham	41	13	15	13	+4	54
16	Stoke	41	11	18	12	-6	51
17	Blackburn	41	13	11	17	-8	50
18	QPR	41	12	9	20	-19	45
19	Millwall	40	10	11	19	-13	41
20	Reading	41	9	14	18	-17	41
21	Wigan	41	10	11	20	-17	41
22	Rotherham	41	8	15	18	-26	39
23	Bolton	41	8	8	25	-39	32
24	Ipswich	41	4	15	22	-35	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	21	14	3	4	+16	45
2	Sheffield United	20	13	3	4	+21	42
3	Brentford	21	12	4	5	+22	40
4	Leeds	19	12	3	4	+15	39
5	Hull	21	11	5	5	+16	38
6	Derby	19	10	7	2	+15	37
7	Swansea	20	11	4	5	+13	37
8	Nott'm Forest	20	11	4	5	+10	37
9	Sheffield Weds	21	9	8	4	+6	35
10	Wigan	20	9	7	4	+6	34
11	West Brom	19	9	6	4	+17	33
12	Blackburn	21	9	6	6	+9	33
13	Aston Villa	18	8	8	2	+11	32
14	Bristol City	21	8	7	6	+4	31
15	Preston	21	7	9	5	+7	30
16	Birmingham	21	7	9	5	+7	30
17	Stoke	20	8	6	6	+2	30
18	Rotherham	21	7	8	6	-3	29
19	Millwall	20	7	7	6	+0	28
20	Middlesbrough	20	7	6	7	+3	27
21	QPR	20	8	3	9	+0	27
22	Reading	20	7	4	9	-3	25
23	Ipswich	20	2	10	8	-9	16
24	Bolton	21	4	4	13	-19	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	20	11	7	2	+18	40
2	Sheffield United	21	10	6	5	+9	36
3	Leeds	20	10	4	6	+6	34
4	Bristol City	19	10	4	5	+6	34
5	Middlesbrough	21	9	7	5	+4	34
6	West Brom	20	10	3	7	+3	33
7	Aston Villa	20	8	6	6	+5	30
8	Preston	20	8	3	9	-3	27
9	Birmingham	20	6	6	8	-3	24
10	Sheffield Weds	20	6	6	8	-8	24
11	Derby	18	6	5	7	-1	23
12	Hull	20	6	4	10	-13	22
13	Stoke	21	3	12	6	-8	21
14	Nott'm Forest	21	3	11	7	-5	20
15	Swansea	20	5	4	11	-8	19
16	QPR	21	4	6	11	-19	18
17	Blackburn	20	4	5	11	-17	17
18	Reading	21	2	10	9	-14	16
19	Bolton	20	4	4	12	-20	16
20	Brentford	20	2	8	10	-13	14
21	Millwall	20	3	4	13	-13	13
22	Ipswich	21	2	5	14	-26	11
23	Rotherham	20	1	7	12	-23	10
24	Wigan	21	1	4	16	-23	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.